Monday, January 31, 2005

Case of the Muundays

Interesting article from BizJournals.com about Ed Noonan, founder of Contravisory Research & Management Corp. Mr. Noonan focuses on long-term price-trend analysis for the stock market. His work sounds very interesting. If you check out his website you can even find out more in regard to his research and analysis of price trends and their relation to the overall market and sectors.

If you're interested in the entrepreneur side of things...check out BizJournals.com. Each day a couple of stories about small businesses are portrayed. Always interesting and sometimes a good idea generator.

Later Trades...

Daily Systems

New System Triggers
  • Close FO (BreakUp) long position at Tuesday's market open.
Recently Closed Trades
  • none.
Current Open Systems
Symbol System Entry Date Exit Date Profit/Loss%
MGF BreakUp
1/19/2005 open +0.75%
FO Breakup
1/24/2005 open +4.98%



Total +5.74%

Please read the disclaimer on the website. This is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or trade securities. Just a journal of my travels through Wall Street. I can buy, sell, or hold any positions mentioned on this website at anytime. So, be warned.

Weekend Update

Daily Systems

New System Triggers
  • none.
Recently Closed Trades
  • Closed QQQQ (ATRBreakBB) long position with a -3.77% loss.
Current Open Systems
Symbol System Entry Date Exit Date Profit/Loss%
MGF BreakUp
1/19/2005 open +0.60%
FO Breakup
1/24/2005 open +3.09%



Total +3.69%

Weekly Systems

New System Triggers
  • Close CARN (PennyLag) long position at Monday's market open.
Recently Closed Trades
  • Closed EGHT (PennyLag) long position at -29.67% profit.
  • Closed ZICA (PennyLag) long position at +32.49% profit.
  • Closed QQQQ (TurtleTrader) long position at -7.78% profit.

Current Open Systems

Symbol System Entry Date Exit Date Profit/Loss%
QQQQ SimpleUp 1/4/2005 open -2.71%
AATKPennyLag1/5/2005 open-25.40%
CARN PennyLag 1/7/2005 open +2.01%
HAUP PennyLag 1/7/2005 open -16.56%
DDDC PennyLag 1/18/2005 open -2.00%
DCTH PennyLag 1/24/2005 open +18.13%



Total -26.53%

Please read the disclaimer on the website. This is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or trade securities. Just a journal of my travels through Wall Street. I can buy, sell, or hold any positions mentioned on this website at anytime. So, be warned.

Friday, January 28, 2005

Quick Little Ditty

Ran across an interesting interview with Marc Perkins. Read part1 and part2. Marc tells a great little story on Warren Buffett:
I used to trade with him when I was at Salomon . He was a customer of Salomon back in the early '70s, and I can remember when he was buying bank stocks in 1971, the doggy banks, not the growth stock banks. He was buying Harris Trust. And the Manufacturer's Hanover Trust department called up and said they had a big block of stock in Harris Trust for sale. Buffett had a trader, a fellow by the name of Bill Scott in his office in Omaha. And we called Bill Scott and said, "We got a block of Harris Trust for sale." The stock was around $49 and he said, "I'll pay $47." And so we called Manny Hanny back and told them he said he'd pay $47 and they said, "That's ridiculous, down 2 points. That's crazy." Of course, Harris Trust didn't trade very much, so Buffett was the only buyer around.

So we called Scott back and said, "The seller won't go below the market. They'll sell it for 48.5," and Buffett's response was, "Tell them we're not interested." So, we call Manny Hanny back and say, "There are no bids." "What do you mean no bids?" they say. "Tell 'em I'll sell 'em at 47." So Buffett's guy says, "47 is no good any more. We've gone on to something else and we're just not interested." So the Manny Hanny guy couldn't believe that somebody just walked away. So he now starts calling everybody on the Street trying to sell and the next thing you know, the stock is around 44. And he'd call us back back and ask, "Can you buy it now?" And I would call Buffett back and he would say, "I'll pay 42."

That's his whole deal. Iron-willed discipline. People who know what they know and know what they're good at survive over time.
Marc also reveals one of the wisest pieces of advice anyone has ever given to him:
"The secret to success is knowing when you have enough information to make a decision." - Jim Walter of the Jim Walter Corporation
Here's another post from an edited transcript of a talk by none other than Warren Buffett himself. In it Buffett talks about The Super Investors of Graham-and-Doddsville. Read here.

Well, enjoy the posts and have a wonderful weekend. It's raining here in Texas and a bit nippy. I'm hoping to spend the weekend resting my brain from all the system work I've been performing. Read a few good books: The New Laws of the Stock Market Jungle by Michael J. Panzer, Hot Commodities by Jim Rogers, and Blink: The Power of Thinking Without Thinking by Malcolm Gladwell. And of course, play a few games of CandyLand with my daughter. :)

Later Trades.

Thursday, January 27, 2005

Fed Chair History

  • Daytraders out there need to check out the action in EAT. The market maker for that stock is making some serious coin.
  • The BreakUp system really missed out on the ACV trade. Just one more day would have been really nice. The ACV trade was closed at the open today and then proceeded to surge 5% beyond that opening price.
  • Need a little help from my readers. I'm doing some research on the history of Federal Reserve Chairmen. Anyone know the starting month for Benjamin Strong's tenure as Fed Chair?
  • Also, what's the deal with Ronald Ransom? I believe he died while Fed Chair and then McCabe was appointed. But, don't know the actual tenure timeline or starting month. Review the list below and let me know of any errors.
Federal Reserve Chairman in History
Benjamin Strong (starting month: ?; served: 1914 - 1928)
Marriner Eccles (starting month: February; 1936 - 1948)
Ronald Ransom (starting month: ?; served: ?)
Thomas McCabe (starting month: April; served: 1948 - 1951)
William McChesney Martin (starting month: April; served: 1951 - 1970)
Arthur Burns (starting month: February; served: 1970 - 1978)
G. William Miller (starting month: March; served: 1978 - 1979)
Paul Volcker (starting month: August; served: 1979 - 1987)
Alan Greenspan (starting month: August; served: 1987-current)

Thanks!

Daily Systems

New System Triggers
  • Close QQQQ (ATRBreakBB) long position at Friday's market open.
Recently Closed Trades
  • Closed QQQQ (MidWeekDrops) long position with a -0.62% loss.
  • Closed ACV (BreakUp) long position with a +3.96% profit.
  • Closed EAT (BreakUp) long position with a +2.96% profit.
Current Open Systems
Symbol System Entry Date Exit Date Profit/Loss%
QQQQ ATRBreakBB
1/5/2005 open -4.08%
MGF BreakUp
1/19/2005 open +0.60%
FO Breakup
1/24/2005 open +2.83%



Total -0.65%

Please read the disclaimer on the website. This is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or trade securities. Just a journal of my travels through Wall Street. I can buy, sell, or hold any positions mentioned on this website at anytime. So, be warned.

Wednesday, January 26, 2005

John Henry and Airbrushing Models

Very interesting Q & A with John Henry. Read here.

I admire how John has full confidence in his systems...especially in the drawdowns. I'm sure the biggest key to his performance is not deleveraging during heavy drawdowns. By staying fully leveraged he is able to snap back to prior highs. Of course, in the wrong hands this could be another Long Term Capital. So, not only confidence in your system is key...but your system's validity is an even bigger key.

Also interesting how he chooses to deleverage due to profit. And how they will look at various charts priced in different currencies.

That brings up a long-term gripe I have about some forms of technical analysis. I used to eyeball charts...up to 1500 a night. Looking for patterns that matched what I considered to be "winning charts".

The problem with this approach is that many factors change on a stock chart when a stock begins advancing. Splits, dividends, volatility, etc. You look back at a chart and might see a nice tight range then a breakout that leads to a 100% or more movement in price. You get that "aha" moment that you need to look for nice tight ranges and buy the breakouts.

Problem with this approach, is often times those "tight ranges" are only created after a 40% to 50% upward move in the stock.

Split-adjusted stocks are even more fun. They make many stocks look as if they rose from mere pennies when in fact they got their start at a much higher price. Fools several beginning investors into thinking they need to look at penny stocks in order to find the next Starbucks.

Okay, enough griping before I piss off anymore die hard chart readers.

Seriously, I still review charts every night. Always will. There's no better way to tell what's going on with a stock for me. But, realize you're often times looking at a Maxim Magazine cover spread. Airbrush and all. Looks can be deceiving.

Later trades.


Daily Systems

New System Triggers
  • Close QQQQ (MidWeekDrops) long position at Thursday's market open.
  • Close ACV (BreakUp) long position at Thursday's market open.
  • Close EAT (BreakUp) long position at Thursday's market open.
Recently Closed Trades
  • none
Current Open Systems
Symbol System Entry Date Exit Date Profit/Loss%
QQQQ ATRBreakBB
1/5/2005 open -3.96%
ACV BreakUp
1/7/2005 open +1.01%
MGF BreakUp
1/19/2005 open +0.60%
QQQQ MidWeekDrops
1/24/2005 open +1.03%
FO Breakup
1/24/2005 open +2.70%
EAT Breakup
1/25/2005 open +4.33%**



Total +5.71%

Note: EAT opened late on the NYSE exchange and its very possible the actual opening print was much higher than the $36.52 quoted in the various data providers.

Please read the disclaimer on the website. This is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or trade securities. Just a journal of my travels through Wall Street. I can buy, sell, or hold any positions mentioned on this website at anytime. So, be warned.

Tuesday, January 25, 2005

Bad Fill

Frustrated with my broker today. I decided to take the EAT trade this morning and received a horrible fill at the opening print. Just horrible.

If anyone has a good broker to recommend please pass them my way. To be honest, I don't really need much in the way of online brokerage services. I would even prefer to just call or email my order in. Pretty much the only type of orders I place are market orders at the open. Anyway, if you have a good broker...let me know either via comments or email at mike@taylortree.com. I'd appreciate your input.

Daily Systems

New System Triggers
  • none
Recently Closed Trades
  • none
Current Open Systems
Symbol System Entry Date Exit Date Profit/Loss%
QQQQ ATRBreakBB
1/5/2005 open -5.09%
ACV BreakUp
1/7/2005 open +0.57%
MGF BreakUp
1/19/2005 open +0.30%
QQQQ MidWeekDrops
1/24/2005 open -0.16%
FO Breakup
1/24/2005 open +2.94%
EAT Breakup
1/25/2005 open +1.92%**



Total +0.48%

Note: EAT opened late on the NYSE exchange and its very possible the actual opening print was much higher than the $36.52 quoted in the various data providers.

Please read the disclaimer on the website. This is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or trade securities. Just a journal of my travels through Wall Street. I can buy, sell, or hold any positions mentioned on this website at anytime. So, be warned.

Monday, January 24, 2005

Jim Rogers Interview

Check out RealWorldTrading.com's interview with Jim Rogers. Read here. And during my vist to the site I found a nice interview of Charles Cottle. Read here.

Working hard on trading systems development. My eyes are bloodshot, my brain is fried, and I need rest. But, can't stop. My system development juices are flowing again. Yeah!

I will most likely remove the trading system signals for the QQQQ systems. I found some interesting dynamics between the various index systems and I'm now certain these need to be used as an indicator instead of individual systems. So, I'll close the posting of QQQQ systems after the close of the MidWeeksDrops system. Hopefully, in the next few weeks I'll be able to post the indicator chart. That is if I'm still alive. :)

Daily Systems

New System Triggers
  • Enter EAT (BreakUp) long position at Tuesday's market open. Note: earnings will be announced Tuesday around 9:00am. This is an event that isn't backtested very well in the BreakUp System. So, I'm not sure I will take this trade. Might be better to watch and learn how the system handles this type of event.
Recently Closed Trades
  • Closed CB (BreakUp) long position with a -4.09% loss.
Current Open Systems
Symbol System Entry Date Exit Date Profit/Loss%
QQQQ ATRBreakBB
1/5/2005 open -4.21%
ACV BreakUp
1/7/2005 open +0.10%
MGF BreakUp
1/19/2005 open 0.00%
QQQQ MidWeekDrops
1/24/2005 open -1.27%
FO Breakup
1/24/2005 open +0.87%



Total -4.51%

Please read the disclaimer on the website. This is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or trade securities. Just a journal of my travels through Wall Street. I can buy, sell, or hold any positions mentioned on this website at anytime. So, be warned.

Weekend Update

Daily Systems

New System Triggers
  • Enter QQQQ (MidWeekDrops) long position at Monday's market open.
  • Enter FO (BreakUp) long position at Monday's market open.
  • Close CB (BreakUp) long position at Monday's market open.
Recently Closed Trades
  • None.
Current Open Systems
Symbol System Entry Date Exit Date Profit/Loss%
QQQQ ATRBreakBB
1/5/2005 open -4.21%
ACV BreakUp
1/7/2005 open +0.10%
CB BreakUp
1/19/2005 open -4.09%
MGF Breakup
1/19/2005 open -0.15%



Total -8.35%

Weekly Systems

New System Triggers
  • Enter DCTH (PennyLag) long position at Monday's market open.
  • Close EGHT (PennyLag) long position at Monday's market open.
  • Close ZICA (PennyLag) long position at Monday's market open.
  • Close QQQQ (TurtleTrader) long position at Monday's market open.
Recently Closed Trades
  • Closed VNWK (PennyLag) long position at +10.14% profit.

Current Open Systems

Symbol System Entry Date Exit Date Profit/Loss%
QQQQ SimpleUp 1/4/2005 open -2.37%
QQQQ TurtleTrader 1/5/2005 open -7.65%
AATKPennyLag1/5/2005 open-19.44%
EGHT PennyLag 1/5/2005 open -34.20%
ZICA PennyLag 1/6/2005 open +29.75%
CARN PennyLag 1/7/2005 open -7.38%
HAUP PennyLag 1/7/2005 open -16.56%
DDDC PennyLag 1/18/2005 open -10.50%



Total -68.35%

Please read the disclaimer on the website. This is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or trade securities. Just a journal of my travels through Wall Street. I can buy, sell, or hold any positions mentioned on this website at anytime. So, be warned.

Thursday, January 20, 2005

Back to the Salt Mine

Sorry for the lack in posts this week. It has been a very busy week. My mind is on other things than this blog or the current market's state. I've been trying to figure out how to code the QQQQ daily systems into an indicator.

I've made some progress the past two nights. But, still much work ahead. So, before I head back to the salt mine...wanted to wish everyone a great weekend.

Later trades.

Daily Systems

New System Triggers
  • None
Recently Closed Trades
  • Closed QQQQ (TrueRVolume) at Thursday's market open with a -2.66% loss.
Current Open Systems
Symbol System Entry Date Exit Date Profit/Loss%
QQQQ ATRBreakBB
1/5/2005 open -3.44%
ACV BreakUp
1/7/2005 open +1.62%
CB BreakUp
1/19/2005 open -3.25%
MGF Breakup
1/19/2005 open +0.00%



Total -5.07%

Please read the disclaimer on the website. This is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or trade securities. Just a journal of my travels through Wall Street. I can buy, sell, or hold any positions mentioned on this website at anytime. So, be warned.

Wednesday, January 19, 2005

Year 2000 Behavior?

Is it just me or does the recent market behavior feel like early 2000? When companies with good earnings got slaughtered. In fact, any good news was sold and sold hard.

I guess what I'm getting at is this type of behavior feels more like a top than a bottom. So, be careful out there.

Later trades.

Daily Systems

New System Triggers
  • Closing the QQQQ (TrueRVolume) long system at Thursday's market open.
Recently Closed Trades
  • Closed QQQQ (VolSurgeDown) at Wednesday's market open with a +1.23% profit.
  • Closed QQQQ (BBLower) at Wednesday's market open with a +0.18% profit.
  • Closed WAG (Breakup) at Wednesday's market open with a +6.77% profit.
Current Open Systems
Symbol System Entry Date Exit Date Profit/Loss%
QQQQ ATRBreakBB 1/5/2005 open -1.55%
QQQQ TrueRVolume
1/5/2005 open -1.55%
ACV BreakUp
1/7/2005 open +0.61%
CB BreakUp
1/19/2005 open -1.16%
MGF Breakup
1/19/2005 open +0.15%



Total -3.50%

Please read the disclaimer on the website. This is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or trade securities. Just a journal of my travels through Wall Street. I can buy, sell, or hold any positions mentioned on this website at anytime. So, be warned.

Tuesday, January 18, 2005

Busy as a Bee

This promises to be a busy week. Sorry for any lack in posting.

Received a new system trigger for the close-end fund, MGF for Wednesday's market open. This system trigger is from the BreakUp system. I don't like this trade selection. It's not what the system was created for...but these type of instruments have been included in my backtest. So, the BreakUp system can handle it...I'm just reluctant to trade it. I'll add it out there and most likely just track it not trade. I'll think about it more over a good night's rest.

Later Trades.

Daily Systems

New System Triggers
  • Closing the QQQQ (VolSurgeDown) long system at Wednesday's market open.
  • Closing the QQQQ (BBLower) long system at Wednesday's market open.
  • Closing the WAG (BreakUp) long system at Wednesday's market open.
  • Opening the CB (BreakUp) long system at Wednesday's market open.
  • Opening the MGF (BreakUp) long system at Wednesday's market open.

Recently Closed Profits
  • Closed the QQQQ (Tii100Low) on Tuesday's market open with a -0.88% loss.
  • Closed the QQQQ (Harami) on Tuesday's market open with a -1.03% loss.
Current Open Systems
Symbol System Entry Date Exit Date Profit/Loss%
WAG BreakUp 1/4/2005 open +6.96%
QQQQ BBLower
1/5/2005 open +0.10%
QQQQ ATRBreakBB
1/5/2005 open +0.10%
QQQQ TrueRVolume
1/5/2005 open +0.10%
ACV Breakup
1/7/2005 open +1.19%
QQQQ VolSurgeDown
1/8/2005 open +1.15%



Total +9.60%

*Note, my totals were not correct in previous posts on the daily system tables.

Please read the disclaimer on the website. This is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or trade securities. Just a journal of my travels through Wall Street. I can buy, sell, or hold any positions mentioned on this website at anytime. So, be warned.

Monday, January 17, 2005

3 Day Weekend Update

Stayed and played at the Kemah Boardwalk this weekend. The girls and I ate great seafood, shopped, and rode the train. It was a little cold...but still enjoyable. My daughter loved the Aquarium restaurant. Her parents did too. :)

Now, on to business. I'm thinking about changing the trading of the QQQQ systems...both the weekly and daily systems. The reason? Too much money is tied up in order to trade them. Basically, they just don't produce enough profit to warrant the tie up of capital. I have two choices: 1) Trade the underlying option contracts or 2) Convert the systems into an indicator and use to create strategies to trade stocks within the Nasdaq 100 index.

So, over the coming weeks expect changes in those systems and how they are published.

Have a great week!

Daily Systems

New System Triggers
  • Closing the following long systems at Tuesday's market open: QQQQ (Tii100Low) and QQQQ (Harami).
  • Opening the QQQQ (VolSurgeDown) long system at Tuesday's market open. I'm no longer trading the QQQQ systems but will continue to publish them until I decide upon an alternative way to trade them.

Recently Closed Profits
  • Closed the QQQQ (VolSurgeDown) on Friday's market open with a -1.11% loss.
Current Open Systems
Symbol System Entry Date Exit Date Profit/Loss%
WAG BreakUp 1/4/2005 open +3.17%
QQQQ Tii100Low 1/5/2005 open -0.65%
QQQQ BBLower 1/5/2005 open -0.65%
QQQQ ATRBreakBB 1/5/2005 open -0.65%
QQQQ TrueRVolume 1/5/2005 open -0.65%
QQQQ Harami 1/6/2005 open -0.49%
ACV BreakUp 1/7/2005 open -0.02%



Total +0.03%


Weekly Systems

New System Triggers
  • Closing the VNWK (PennyLag) long system at Tuesday's market open.
  • Opening the DDDC (PennyLag) long system at Tuesday's market open.

Current Open Systems

Symbol System Entry Date Exit Date Profit/Loss%
QQQQ SimpleUp 1/4/2005 open +1.26%
QQQQ TurtleTrader 1/5/2005 open -4.21%
AATKPennyLag1/5/2005 open-17.86%
VNWK PennyLag 1/5/2005 open +13.04%
EGHT PennyLag 1/5/2005 open -23.58%
ZICA PennyLag 1/6/2005 open +21.28%
CARN PennyLag 1/7/2005 open -5.87%
HAUP PennyLag 1/7/2005 open -14.77%



Total -30.71%


Please read the disclaimer on the website. This is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or trade securities. Just a journal of my travels through Wall Street. I can buy, sell, or hold any positions mentioned on this website at anytime. So, be warned.

Thursday, January 13, 2005

TGIF

When I run my weekly system scans this weekend...I'm afraid a few sell triggers will be issued due to disaster stops. Unless we have a good day tomorrow.

Losses hurt but are a part of business. A great take on losses is from Tom Basso's interview in The New Market Wizards book:
  • "Think of each trade as one of the next one thousand trades he's going to make. If you start thinking in terms of the next one thousand trades, all of a sudden you've made any single trade seem very inconsequential."
  • "I stopped looking at losses as problems and started viewing them as opportunities to elevate myself to the next plateau."
  • "I sat there for a moment and thought about all the events and actions of the previous evening and that morning. I realized that there was not a single thing I would have done differently. Despite having just lost 15 percent in our portfolios overnight, I felt phenomonally good at that point."
Market note: The heavy-weights were back at it again today. Will they be back tomorrow? Doubt it. We should see some strength. But, watch the last hour of trading to gauge how comfortable traders are with holding over the weekend.

Everyone have a great Friday and enjoy your weekend.

Daily Systems

Sell trigger issued for QQQQ (VolSurgeDown) long system at Friday's market open. The signal issuing the sell is a time stop. Most of these QQQQ systems will be hitting time stops next week.

Current Open Systems:

Symbol System Entry Date Exit Date Profit/Loss%
WAG BreakUp 1/4/2005 open +2.30%
QQQQ Tii100Low 1/5/2005 open -1.58%
QQQQ BBLower 1/5/2005 open -1.58%
QQQQ ATRBreakBB 1/5/2005 open -1.58%
QQQQ TrueRVolume 1/5/2005 open -1.58%
QQQQ VolSurgeDown 1/6/2005 open -1.42%
QQQQ Harami 1/6/2005 open -1.42%
ACV BreakUp 1/7/2005 open -0.81%



Total -0.94%

Please read the disclaimer on the website. This is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or trade securities. Just a journal of my travels through Wall Street. I can buy, sell, or hold any positions mentioned on this website at anytime. So, be warned.

Wednesday, January 12, 2005

Ringing the Bell

Is that what Bill Cara said he does when he makes some coin? Well, I'm ringing the bell because yesterday's post was spot on with how the market traded today. Bill, can you hear the bell? :)

Articles for the musing:
  • Another great post from the Texas Hedge Report. I do not want to agree with their analogy on the Roaring Twenties and today. But, they make a good case. If you throw the Presidential cycle into the mix...their timing might be pretty accurate. The 29 crash occured 3 October's before the 1932 election. We're currently 3 January's away from the 2008 election. If the gold and silver markets are truly in secular bull markets...they're going to have to start turning around sooner rather than later.

  • An interesting study on buying the prior year's strongest sectors. If you would have done this from 1991 thru 2004; you'd have a compounded annual return of 18.4% versus the SP-500's 9.7%. Read here.

  • Interview of Jeffrey A. Hirsch from RealWorldTrading. Take it for what you will. Read here.

  • I have a problem with simplified logic. Maybe because that's my game. ;) Regardless, the logic this investor is using to game oil and satellite radio worries me. Read here.

  • Interview with Pulte Homes CEO, Richard Dugas. A completely different perspective on the rise in real estate. Can you believe they build and sale 100 homes a day? Read here.

Daily Systems

Current Open Systems:

Symbol System Entry Date Exit Date Profit/Loss%
WAG BreakUp 1/4/2005 open +3.89%
QQQQ Tii100Low 1/5/2005 open -0.26%
QQQQ BBLower 1/5/2005 open -0.26%
QQQQ ATRBreakBB 1/5/2005 open -0.26%
QQQQ TrueRVolume 1/5/2005 open -0.26%
QQQQ VolSurgeDown 1/6/2005 open -0.10%
QQQQ Harami 1/6/2005 open -0.10%
ACV BreakUp 1/7/2005 open +0.26%



Total +0.38%

Please read the disclaimer on the website. This is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or trade securities. Just a journal of my travels through Wall Street. I can buy, sell, or hold any positions mentioned on this website at anytime. So, be warned.

Time for the Pop?

Are the heavy-weights through selling? Will Intel's earnings be enough to pop the market up tomorrow? Or will the heavy-weights use the strength to continue their liquidation?

All good questions. And this guy has no answers. Just a warning. Everyone is now used to strength in the morning and weakness in the afternoon. Tomorrow sure looks to start out strong. If so, you can bet your hard earned dollar that retail traders will be shorting that strength hard and fast. Might lead to a nice little squeeze in the afternoon for those traders. That is if the heavy-weights are indeed through with their selling.

A side note. Has anyone been watching SBUX? I for one have never understood this stock or the company. Now, don't get me wrong...I must have my daily cup of joe like the next fella. But, c'mon. Their prices. You gotta be crazy. The local Diamond Shamrock store has a nice little coffee shop with prices more to my liking. And if you don't like that try a Dunkin Doughnuts or the many places sprouting across the country selling premium coffee for discount prices.

Can SBUX really survive long-term? At these stock prices? The recent announcement of MCD entering the premium coffee biz makes me wonder. At least the war between these two very different companies will be fun to watch. Especially with SBUX getting into the hot food business.

And if MCD isn't enough of a worry maybe KO is. With the rumor of a new coffee-flavored coke possibly hitting the market. Read here.

Of course, you've got to add the widespread ownership of SBUX to boot. There's only one exit fellas. Single file, single file.

Note: I do not have any position in SBUX, MCD, or KO at the time of this writing.

Daily Systems

Current Open Systems:

Symbol System Entry Date Exit Date Profit/Loss%
WAG BreakUp 1/4/2005 open +3.27%
QQQQ Tii100Low 1/5/2005 open -1.09%
QQQQ BBLower 1/5/2005 open -1.09%
QQQQ ATRBreakBB 1/5/2005 open -1.09%
QQQQ TrueRVolume 1/5/2005 open -1.09%
QQQQ VolSurgeDown 1/6/2005 open -0.93%
QQQQ Harami 1/6/2005 open -0.93%
ACV BreakUp 1/7/2005 open +0.02%



Total -0.33%

Please read the disclaimer on the website. This is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or trade securities. Just a journal of my travels through Wall Street. I can buy, sell, or hold any positions mentioned on this website at anytime. So, be warned.