Monday, March 14, 2005

Canary in a Coal Mine

Sudden changes in population have historically contributed to inflation. For example, the Black Death in England was a leading factor in the wage inflation of those times. In 16th century England, a population expansion fueled inflation due to the increased demand for goods and services. Thus, anytime a segment of the population expands significantly from a prior generation...be on the lookout for inflationary pressures.

The Baby Boomers were born between 1946 - 1964. They started college from 1964 - 1982. And assuming a five year average to complete their scholastic studies...they graduated in 1969 - 1987. While these figures provide insight...what we really need is to capture the center of the bell-shaped curve in this demographic segment.

Let's take the median of when the Boomers were born and that would be the 10th position in the yearly series which is 1955. These Boomers started college in 1973 and finished in 1978. Okay, we have a pretty good start here. But we still need to capture more of the meat in that bell curve. Try to find the heart of the demographic surge we really need to capture the standard deviation. But, that's too hard for this old country boy. I'm going to keep it simple and assume 1/3 from the median value both ways would give us what we need. With that in mind, we would obtain the following information:
Baby Boomers born: 1951 - 1958.
Baby Boomers Start College: 1969 - 1976.
Baby Boomers Finished College: 1974 - 1981.

Wow! Do these numbers freak you about just a bit? Back in 1969 thru 1981, the United States experienced a significant rise in young adults. I don't have the numbers on hand but I'm guessing probably a 20 million plus increase compared to levels from the prior generation. Granted all boomers did not attend college. But, from the years 1969 thru 1981, Boomers were flooding the US economy in more ways than one. Amazing that 1969 was the beginning year of when the glut of Baby Boomers turned 18 as well as the beginning tough times for the US Equities market. Equally amazing is that 1981 was when the majority of Boomers had finished college and flowed into the system. By that time the US had absorbed this new generation and the worst in numbers was behind them. In fact, the rapid expansion in commodities during the 70's due to these boomers coupled with a large, energetic, and young workforce....is it any wonder that 1982 was the start of the 18 year long bull market?

On to the Echo Boomers. You know, the kids of the Baby Boomers. I've written about them in past articles. These little darlings make up 1/3 of the US population just like their parents make up the other third. They already spend $170 billion per year. First to grow up with computers at home, cellphones, and the Internet. They also drink less, smoke less, and break the law less than prior generations. Teen pregnancy is also way down. These Echo Boomers were born from 1976 - 1995. Will attend college from 1994 - 2013. And will finish college in 1999 - 2018. The median year an Echo Boomer was born is 1985.5 and 1/3 both ways provides the following breakdown:
Echo Boomers born: 1982 - 1989.
Echo Boomers Start College: 2000 - 2007.
Echo Boomers Finished College: 2005 - 2012.

If the Baby Boomer numbers were amazing...these numbers should make the hair on the back of your neck stand up. Interesting bit of data in that the year 2000 marked the beginning of the glut of Echo Boomers into adulthood and at the same time the end of the 18 year bull market. Are we destined to follow the same fate from 2000 - 2012, when the Echo Boomers flood into adulthood as the 1969 - 1981 timeframe when their parents did the same? To answer that I performed some research at the local library.

I found several Business Weeks from the 1970's time period. The conditions described in those magazines mirror our current conditions. I figured 1974 was a great time period to study because we are 5 years past the beginning of the Echo Boom flood into adulthood. And 5 years past the same period in Baby Boomer history would put us in 1974. Here's what I found in the 1974 issues:
  • Several articles discussing rising oil prices and the talks of a bubble in those prices.

  • Rising commodity prices. In fact sugar, orange juice, silver, oil, cotton, and gold were the best performing assets in one issue.

  • Another article discussed rising oil prices and the fact that solar, wind, and more importantly the Canadian Tar Sands would kick in to fulfill the demand. Especially because the oil's recent price now made mining the Tar Sands a viable option.

  • Escalating higher education costs. Enrollment levels were increasing to levels never seen while state budgets were being cut. A situation that is happening now with our colleges.

  • A real insightful article on oil tankers and the surprise that everyone is having in their declining market conditions. With oil prices at all-time highs...why would their market be so bad the article asks. The article goes on to say several company CEO's placed orders for new tankers several months ago and now wish they could cancel those orders. Rising fuel costs and oversupply were the factors blamed in the tankers poor market conditions.


Keep in mind this was a 1974 Business Week. Kinda scary, huh?

Are we at the start of the next Bull market? Or will we be forced to spend until 2012 to absorb these young rascals into our US economy? Time will tell...but keep an eye on your faithful canary in the mine shaft. :-)

Later Trades,

MT

Thursday, March 10, 2005

System Test Questions

Kaushik from the GalaTime blog asked for my thoughts on his recent Covered Call system tests. First, I'd like to say I'm honored by Kaushik's request. GalaTime is part of my daily reads. Kaushik covers the options trading arena and uncovers some interesting information in the options data he mines. And being a fellow Texan doesn't hurt. :-)

So, check out his site and in particular his recent Covered Calls articles...part I, part II, part III, and part IV. You'll find my comments in part IV of the series.

One last thing, sorry again for failed postings this week. This has been a very busy week at my other job. Hopefully after tonight, things will slow down a bit and I can get back to market research and blogging.

Until then...

MT

Monday, March 07, 2005

Very Sorry

Planned to write a nice little post on market history and boomers but encountered several problems at work that had to taken care of. Sorry about this. I hope to resolve everything in time tomorrow to write the post.

Thanks for your patience.

MT

Nothing new

Sorry for no post this weekend. But, just got back from a trip to the Big D.

There were no new system buy or sell triggers this week.

Expect a new Cumulative Knowledge post tomorrow.

Later Trades,

MT

Thursday, March 03, 2005

Warren Buffett, the Greatest Trader?

It's about time someone wrote about how Warren Buffett truly achieves his eye-popping returns. Jim Altucher is the author of the new book, Trade Like Warren Buffett. I casually flipped through the book the other night at Barnes & Noble. A very thorough work Altucher has done and someday if I can catch up on my reading...I'll have to buy and read.

In the mean time, RealWorld Trading interviewed Altucher about Buffett and his new book. Read it here.

What I like most about the trading style Altucher outlined is Buffett's use of categories (Workouts, Generals, and Controls) to allocate his trading assets. The best part? While everyone thinks of Buffett as a long-term investor...50% of his profits came from the Workouts category. A category whose performance he described as "predictability coupled with a short holding period, produces quite decent annual rates of return." I guess, forever might not be his favorite holding period after all.

Also take note of the use of demographics in his trading. Buffett saw potential in a Gillette due to 3 billion people shaving everyday, thus a small blip in earnings would not impact the overall trend. Of course, other factors come into play. As Buffett is quoted...
  • "The investor of today does not profit from yesterday's growth."

  • "It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price."

  • "Great investment opportunities come around when excellent companies are surrounded by unusual circumstances that cause the stock to be misappraised."

Enjoy the interview!

MT

Monday, February 28, 2005

Cumulative Knowledge (02/27/2005)

I've written earlier about the Federal Reserve Chairman history. Read here. As we get closer to Greenspan's closing months as Fed Chairman...we are sure to be bombarded with hype, worries, gloom and doom as we play musical chairs with our nation's top economists. Thought it would be interesting to see what happened to the DJ-30 a month before, the month started, and one year after a new Fed Chairman begins his/her tenure.

Marriner Eccles (starting month: February; 1936 - 1948)
DJ-30 January 2, 1936 close: 144.10
DJ-30 February 3, 1936 close: 150.60
DJ-30 March 2, 1936 close: 154.10
DJ-30 February 1, 1937 close: 186.60

Thomas McCabe (starting month: April; served: 1948 - 1951)
DJ-30 March 1, 1948 close: 168.10
DJ-30 April 1, 1948 close: 177.60
DJ-30 May 3, 1948 close: 179.50
DJ-30 April 1, 1949 close: 176.30

William McChesney Martin (starting month: April; served: 1951 - 1970)
DJ-30 March 1, 1951 close: 252.80
DJ-30 April 2, 1951 close: 246.60
DJ-30 May 1, 1951 close: 260.70
DJ-30 April 1, 1952 close: 267.20

Arthur Burns (starting month: February; served: 1970 - 1978)
DJ-30 January 2, 1970 close: 809.20
DJ-30 February 2, 1970 close: 746.40
DJ-30 March 2, 1970 close: 780.20
DJ-30 February 1, 1971 close: 877.80

G. William Miller (starting month: March; served: 1978 - 1979)
DJ-30 February 1, 1978 close: 774.30
DJ-30 March 1, 1978 close: 743.30
DJ-30 April 3, 1978 close: 751.00
DJ-30 March 1, 1979 close: 815.80
* note Miller did not serve a full year.

Paul Volcker (starting month: August; served: 1979 - 1987)
DJ-30 July 2, 1979 close: 834.00
DJ-30 August 1, 1979 close: 850.30
DJ-30 September 4, 1979 close: 872.60
DJ-30 August 1, 1980 close: 931.50

Alan Greenspan (starting month: August; served: 1987-current)
DJ-30 July 1, 1987 close: 2409.80
DJ-30 August 3, 1987 close: 2557.10
DJ-30 September 1, 1987 close: 2610.97
DJ-30 August 1, 1988 close: 2130.51

Overall, the beginning of a Federal Reserve Chairman's tenure is much ado about nothing. Sure, there was Greenspan's awful performance leading to a -12% decline in his first year as Fed Chairman. But, by and large, most end their first year better than they started. In fact, based just on the numbers above...it looks as the first year of a Fed Chairman is a good thing for the market. Of course, I'm leaving out Benjamin Strong (1914-1928) and Ronald Ransom. My time series does not go back 1914 nor do I have Strong's starting month. And, I cannot find anything for Ronald Ransom's tenure.

Roger Nusbaum posted a blurb about Tom Dorsey's statement that almost every stock that reaches $90 then goes to $100. When I read this I just had to test the idea. The problem was a test of this type requires a time series that is not split-adjusted. Because, stocks that do get to $90 and follow on to $100...are most likely to split their stock...forever removing their original stock price from stock market history. Unless, as I said before, you have access to data pre-split. Despite not having this type of data...I figured there would be enough ETF's and possibly REIT's that did not split to provide some sort of test of the idea. To find out the results of the test, please read Roger Nusbaum's post and the comments posted here. Then follow on to Anumati's blog on his review of this type of confirmation bias at work. Anumati does a great job summarizing this type of bias here.

Let me say one more thing in regard to the $90 to $100 statement above. I do believe the results would improve by including those stocks that have split in the sample. But, is it a tradeable idea? That's a whole different ball game. My test was just to see if $100 was reached. There's many other things to consider in trying to turn the idea into an actual system. And I'll leave it at that.

A great post on gold by Donald Luskin from SmartMoney.com. Two best parts of the article are the following:
  • If you'd held gold instead of dollars since 2000...the price of oil would be 5% cheaper instead of 50% higher.

  • Luskin discusses just a bit about his public blow-up with Jim Cramer from RealMoney.com. For those of you unaware of the public fight between Cramer and Luskin's gold call...you can follow this EliteTrader thread for more info.

Indonesia is considering withdrawing from OPEC. Believes they are a net importer of oil and thus, no longer eligible. Read here.

Very interesting interview with Dennis Gartman here. I love his mention of Mark Twain's cat theory of investment. I absolutely love that theory! For those of you not familiar with it...here it is from Dennis himself:
  • Mark Twain -- and I love this comment -- once said that a cat that sits upon a hot stove will never sit upon a hot stove again, nor upon a cold one either, because they all look hot.

  • Also mentions baby boomers, railroads, producer companies, small local banks as investments, and more.

  • Note: This interview was performed back in March 29, 2003

An interview with Fox's Cashin guest, Wayne Rogers here. Nothing too insightful here but fans of the show might find it interesting.

Here's a news item that caught my eye. Tobacco growers may see a landfall of cash if the government decides to end the tobacco quota program. This could potentially cause domestic growers to get out of the tobacco business and prohibit new entrants into tobacco. I have no knowledge of this business...but pay attention to this sector due to my system investment in DMN.

Looks like the housing bubble is being primed again by the government. Read here. I don't think we need to worry about the housing bubble collapse until the government begins imposing rules to limit buying. I guess, that won't be anytime soon. Speaking of housing, here are some interesting statistics I've dug up:
  • Owner Occupied Housing increased 197% from 1970 to 1980 when the 80 million Baby Boomer generation were in their 20's.
  • Rent Occupied Housing decreased -30% from 1970 to 1980 during the same time period.
  • Owner Occupied Housing increased 18.3% from 1990 to 2000 while the nearly 80 million Echo Boomer generation were in their teens.
  • Rent Occupied housing increased 7% during the same time period.
  • One could concur that as the Echo Boomers age into their 20's that owner occupied housing could increase almost as much as the 197% increase that happened during the original boomers first home purchase buying spree.
  • Almost 2/3's of the Echo Boomers live in California, Florida, and Texas.
  • There is evidence the Echo Boomers are indeed late bloomers. Read here. I encourage all of you to read the article in full. But, if you get anything understand the following: The silent generation (Baby Boomer parents) considered their kids grown up at the age of 18. Baby Boomers do not consider someone an adult until age 26. Plus, high rent and housing costs have forced several echo kids into living with parents until enough money is saved for housing. And my speculation is many of the Baby Boomers second home purchases are for their Echo Boomer children.
Finally, wanted to point out the following post from AllThingsFinancial here on becoming an economist. Sometimes observing the popularity of degrees can be helpful in stock sector performance. You remember the "gotta get a Management Degree" 80's? The must have "MIS" degree of the 90's? I'm not really sure what the must have degree is now. I'd be curious of your comments or opinions on this. Funny thing, experience. When I started college, I wanted the degree that was the most popular...the degree that ensured I would have a job upon graduation. If I had to do it all over again? I would choose a degree that had the least number of students. Back in my day that would have been petroleum engineering, operations research, statistics, and yes, economics. In fact, I've been having recent thoughts and ponderings on going back to school and obtaining a masters in economics. Call me crazy. :-)

Have a great week!

MT

Note: I'll post my system performance tomorrow. There were no system triggers for buys or sells this weekend.

Please read the disclaimer on the website. This is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or trade securities. Just a journal of my travels through Wall Street. I can buy, sell, or hold any positions mentioned on this website at anytime. So, be warned.

Monday, February 21, 2005

Accumulated Knowledge (02/21/2005)

I'm changing up the content of the site a bit. I'll still discuss system trading and continue to post the weekly systems. And I'll continue to develop trading systems. In fact, I've been working on a research intensive trading idea for the past three weeks. Most likely, have another month or so in gathering the data for the system. Then I can start on actually processing the data. But, as far as the site...the frequency of posts and the actual content is going to change.

Due to time constraints, I'll switch from writing posts daily to weekly. Think of it as the beginning of a weekly newsletter. I will also focus more on the big trends that I believe will effect our investing lives over the next 10 years. More of a long-term view on the market and related factors. This will help me in gathering my thoughts on where we are headed. And hopefully, keep me focused on where the money will be made in the coming years. So, let's get started.

One investing theme I like to focus on is anything that involves forced increased spending. Recently the government is forcing the medical establishments hand in getting their records online. Here's a recent article on the governments push. Read here. The main stock I've been following that's taking advantage of this trend is Quality Systems Inc. (QSII). One reason for liking this company is their technology. Most companies in this sector are using some pretty old technology. Making their upgrade path an obstacle. QSII doesn't have this problem and could enable them to be out develop their peers. Here's some recent news on QSII's NextGen subsidiary here. With the likes of Kodak, IBM, Cisco, etc. all getting into this $60 billion a year market...watch out...it could get exciting. Add the 80 million aging baby boomers entering into the overburdened healthcare system and you've now got hospitals being forced to update their systems just for the sake of the numbers being processed through.

Just a wonderful interview on market history from Safe Haven here. John Taylor interviews Bob Hoye of Institutional Advisors. Some of the key points in the interview:
  • Bob believes we're in a cyclical bull within a secular bear market. The cyclical bull began in 2002 and Bob believes the top occurred at the end of 2004.

  • Bob believes a new financial era begins with a huge ramp-up of inflation in the old era stuff followed by a crash in those commodities that will then begin the setup for the new financial era. After a crash in the new financial era...a long contraction ensues. Every bubble Bob studied, the senior currency became strong. So, Bob believes the US Dollar will rise instead of fall.

  • I like Bob's statement in Barron's that "the world is long inflation and short the dollar."

  • Interesting that Bob found in every post-bubble the senior currency become strong and gold became strong. Which goes against what has been happening lately with the gold declining on dollar rallies.

  • Believes we are in year 5 of a 20 year bull market for gold.

  • Take note of his remarks on Jim Rogers and Rogers view on commodities being in a bull market.

  • Also read the blurb on Kudlow, Rubin, and Summers.

  • Overall, just a great lesson in economic history. An article to read again and again and save for the future."

Speaking of bonds, bubbles, and long rates...read Jack's post on the Greenspan conundrum here. John Mauldin also provides some insight into the conundrum as well via Safe Haven.

Some stock picks from various advisors at the Orlando World Money Show from CBSMarketWatch.com. Read here.

Oil investors take note; the US rig count is near a 19-year high. Read here. Read here for the view that land drillers are considered undervalued to their deepwater brethren. And this article notes how the average offshore rig is 20 years old, it will take more rigs to recover oil at the same rate as now, and today's average well takes longer to drill and yields less oil/gas than a decade ago, all pointing to more rig building to come. Another article draws attention to the fact that no new refinery has been built in the US since 1976. I am long a land driller, so be forewarned.

Housing starts hit a 21-year high last Wednesday. The article points that rising rates will deflate the housing boom. I don't believe this will happen like people expect. I believe rising rates will at first inflate the housing boom even higher as investors scramble to lock-in the historical low mortgage rates. Something else will end up breaking housing's back. What that is...I don't know...but I believe everything is leading up to the tipping point in housing. Most likely just one small news item or event will be the trigger. Then we will all see it ever so clearly. But, until then...housing and land is hot, hot, hot. One thing to pay attention to is the 2nd home market. I think one very good proxy for this market is Jim Walter's Homes stock price. Notice the rocket-like rise in the past year of this home builder. When this building stock gets heated...you know the housing bubble is full-steam ahead.

And last but not least, one way to play the cash-rich oil company play is to go after what they might buy. A recent look through Monster.com provided the following clue. Back in the Y2K crunch, the majority of oil companies purchased SAP systems instead of upgrading their legacy systems. See an old article I wrote on the subject. Back then they didn't buy or upgrade to all the available SAP modules. Money and resources have been the issue. With the recent flow in cash coming back to the oil players...they just might decide to add to their SAP systems. I already know of one oil company doing just that. One thing to know is that most oil companies all follow the same line. Why that is...I have no idea. Maybe its the brother-in-law effect. Just kidding.

Anyway, back when Oracle bought PeopleSoft I really thought Oracle was buying into a declining business. The ERP sector is done. So, be careful in entering this sector. SAP sold off pretty badly due to the Orasoft fiasco. Everyone is waiting and watching what SAP will do or what some company will do to it (ie an IBM or Microsoft). Anyway, this lock on the cash rich oil industry just might be the ticket to increased earnings and attention. Note, I currently do not own SAP stock...but that could change at any time.

Ater reading this post and decide you need a little kick-back and relax time...check out the movie, Constantine. It's pretty good. Heck, I might have to go see it a second time.

Have a great and prosperous week!

Later Trades,

Michael Taylor

Weekly Systems

New System Triggers
  • Closing AATK (PennyLag) long position at Monday's Market Open.

  • Closing DDDC (PennyLag) long position at Monday's Market Open.
Recently Closed Trades
  • none.

Current Open Systems

Symbol System Entry Date Exit Date Profit/Loss%
QQQQ SimpleUp 1/4/2005 open -1.58%
AATKPennyLag1/5/2005 open-38.49%
HAUP PennyLag 1/7/2005 open -22.08%
DDDC PennyLag 1/18/2005 open +25.50%
DCTH PennyLag 1/24/2005 open -3.63%
APLX PennyLag 2/7/2005 open +13.55%



Total -26.73%

Please read the disclaimer on the website. This is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or trade securities. Just a journal of my travels through Wall Street. I can buy, sell, or hold any positions mentioned on this website at anytime. So, be warned.

Monday, February 14, 2005

Peak Oil, Hospitals, and Market Wisdom

Ran across this rant over at EliteTrader today. Discussion is about peak oil, the sky is falling, I'm right, you're wrong. I always enjoy reading these types of discussions. The participants always get caught up in proving one's self worth and in the process give up some really good insight that could make you a buck or two in the market.

My father-in-law was in the hospital over the weekend and after spending a few hours there...I believe I saw a bit of the future. The hospital was different than most of the hospitals I've been to. They had a nice little restaurant, gift shop containing gifts you'd actually buy, and the entire hospital smelled like a beauty salon. It almost gave you the feeling you were in the mall. And with almost 80 million baby boomers coming into the age of aches and pains...I can see where hospitals will evolve from the traditional diagnose, treat, and release...to providing a level of service never seen before. I wouldn't doubt there would be a local Walgreens in the hospital, food courts, and possibly a movie theater in the future.

Some stats supporting this belief of mine are from a recent BusinessWeek article stating some 22.4 million U.S. households care for someone over the age of 65. In fact, the number of Americans expecting to care for an aged relative is up 25% from 1997. With more people and time spent in hospitals...the greater level of service and amnenities hospitals will need to provide.

Forgive me if hospitals already have these features in your neck of the woods. If so, please enlighten this backwoods boy from Texas. :)

For your information my father-in-law is okay...he passed his heart tests with flying colors. He was able to go home today and you can bet he's already feeling much better. But, please say a prayer or two for my Dad who is undergoing an esophagus test tomorrow morning.

I've recently made a purchase in the oil drillers sector and oil service sector. This is from my 5% of equity "play" money allocation. I've actually been beating my head against the wall for not doing this much earlier in the year...but part of the problem is all my money was tied up in my trading systems. And of course the other part was analysis paralysis. My arch nemesis. :)

Finally some words of wisdom since I seem to have none.

"The man who follows the crowd will usually get no further than the crowd. The man who walks alone is likely to find himself in places no one has ever been." -- Alan Ashley-Pitt

"Be extremely skeptical, and stay with what you know. The great success stores in life are people who figure out what they know, stay with it, put their eggs in that basket and watch it carefully." -- Jim Rogers (Managed the Quantum Fund to a 3,400% gain in 10 years)

"Someone's sitting in the shade today because someone planted a tree a long time ago." -- Warren Buffett

Sunday, February 13, 2005

Accumulated Knowledge (02/13/2005)

Sorry for the lack of posts...but I've been doing some research on the local real estate market. And getting some much needed help and insight from Jack and his Old Merrill Pal over at Stocks and Bonds?. If you haven't checked out the Stocks and Bonds? blog...you owe it to yourself to do so. He covers a range of topics from stocks, bonds, real estate, the economy, market history, the list goes on. I'm not kidding in saying Jack has forgotten more than I will ever know. Check it out!

A recent interview from Valero's CEO, Bill Greehey. Looks like 2005 will be another bang up year for the company. I never got around to doing a complete study on the oil refinery business...but do know that the horrific narrowing of the crack spreads seem to be at the refineries back. In addition, any refinery that has taken advantage of heavy crude processing is in the sweet spot. Plus, I stop every day to grab a coffee from one of their Diamond Shamrock stores. :)

A comeback for IO? Their new seismic system sounds interesting. They just need the exploration market to kick into high gear. And to overcome the recent lawsuit.

I can't help but think there's more than a few opportunities presenting themselves in the heartlands these days. Read here on the recent initiatives to keep residents from blowing away. Combine this problem with the recent news here and here on Bush's aim towards cutting government subsidies for grain farmers and you've got a bottom in the making. Ya think?

Interesting article on School Reform and the turnaround background on the NYPD. Read here.

Looking for a good movie or two to see? You must check out In Good Company and Meet the Fockers. If you're a dad with a daughter...then you absolutely have to see In Good Company. Just be prepared to be pulled at the heartstrings. :)

Have a good week everyone!

Daily Systems

New System Triggers
  • none.
Recently Closed Trades
  • Closed MGF (BreakUp) on the previous Monday's open at +1.20% profit.

Weekly Systems

New System Triggers
  • none.
Recently Closed Trades
  • none.

Current Open Systems

Symbol System Entry Date Exit Date Profit/Loss%
QQQQ SimpleUp 1/4/2005 open -0.66%
AATKPennyLag1/5/2005 open-26.19%
HAUP PennyLag 1/7/2005 open -25.00%
DDDC PennyLag 1/18/2005 open +60.50%
DCTH PennyLag 1/24/2005 open -6.95%
APLX PennyLag 2/7/2005 open +13.98%



Total +15.68%

Please read the disclaimer on the website. This is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or trade securities. Just a journal of my travels through Wall Street. I can buy, sell, or hold any positions mentioned on this website at anytime. So, be warned.

Sunday, February 06, 2005

Weekend Update (02/06/2005)

Looking at another house on Monday. Wish me luck.

Have a good week!

Daily Systems

New System Triggers
  • Close MGF (BreakUp) long position at Monday's market open.
Recently Closed Trades
  • none.
Current Open Systems
Symbol System Entry Date Exit Date Profit/Loss%
MGF BreakUp
1/19/2005 open +1.35%



Total +1.35%

Weekly Systems

New System Triggers
  • Initiate APLX (PennyLag) long position at Monday's market open.
Recently Closed Trades
  • Closed CARN (PennyLag) long position at +1.51% profit.

Current Open Systems

Symbol System Entry Date Exit Date Profit/Loss%
QQQQ SimpleUp 1/4/2005 open -0.53%
AATKPennyLag1/5/2005 open-24.60%
HAUP PennyLag 1/7/2005 open -8.77%
DDDC PennyLag 1/18/2005 open +30.75%
DCTH PennyLag 1/24/2005 open -0.03%



Total -3.18%

Please read the disclaimer on the website. This is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or trade securities. Just a journal of my travels through Wall Street. I can buy, sell, or hold any positions mentioned on this website at anytime. So, be warned.

Thursday, February 03, 2005

Interest Rates Article

Fantastic article on interest rate increases and their historical effects by Gary Carmell via Safe Haven. He puts together a pretty good "variant perception" of what could happen to the bond market this year. Not sure if I agree with his conclusion but his observations are hard to ignore.

Gary points out that only 4 out of 56 economists believe the 10-year Treasury security will end 2005 at 4.50% or lower.

His chart reflecting Japan's interest rates from 1983 - 2004 and U.S. commercial paper rates from 1921 - 1943 is pretty cool.

Gary has studied over 150+ years of interest rate history and offers the following:
  • During the first half of an economic expansion interest rates fall 67% of the time (56% since World War II) and increase 83% of the time (89% post WW-II) during the second half.

  • As we transition to recessions rates have risen 80% of the time (70% post WW-II) during the first half and have fallen 97% of the time (100% post WW-II) during the second half of the recession.

  • Thus, recoveries are aided by dropping interest rates and recessions are typically induced by higher rates.

  • Between June 1857 and December 1945, the U.S. was in a recession approximately 44% of the time, or every 27 months with the average duration being 22 months.

  • Since 1946 the recession frequency has dropped to 16%, or every 57 months with an average duration of 11 months.

  • Our current expansion has lasted 37 months. If recent history is any guide, then we have approximately two years before our next recession.
There are many more great insights into interest rates uncovered in this article. Read the entire article here.

Daily Systems

New System Triggers
  • none.
Recently Closed Trades
  • Closed FO (BreakUp) back on Tuesday's market open with a +4.88% profit.
Current Open Systems
Symbol System Entry Date Exit Date Profit/Loss%
MGF BreakUp
1/19/2005 open +1.05%



Total +1.05%

Please read the disclaimer on the website. This is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or trade securities. Just a journal of my travels through Wall Street. I can buy, sell, or hold any positions mentioned on this website at anytime. So, be warned.

Wednesday, February 02, 2005

Grandpa, Cotton, and the Fed Chairman

Usually, I post stock market information...but this link is about commodities. Cotton in particular. I've never traded the futures market. But, I do have a bit of a commodities bug in me. I believe I got it from my grandfather. A man I never met and from the stories told...a man I sure would've liked to have known. He was a cattle rancher and farmer...cotton being one of his favorite crops. I sure wish the new seed technologies would have been around when he was breaking his back in cotton. Read cotton article here. Key points below:
  • The Texas cotton harvest is expected to be 7.5 million bales, best since at least 1949. The United States, largely because of the Texas crop, expects a record, too. Worldwide, cotton harvests in many countries will hit records. "Nobody had a crop failure to speak of," says Shawn Wade of the Plains Cotton Growers, which represents West Texas growers.

  • A decline in the water table and its quality could have a long-term effect on West Texas cotton growers.

  • Genetic engineering of seeds has meant farmers can plant varieties that are drought-resistant or that can thrive in colder areas. The genetic engineering that produces such seeds is one reason U.S. cotton harvests have become more plentiful. "We used to have one seed, and now we have 5,200 varieties," says Candice Poteet, executive vice president of the Texas Cotton Association in Dallas, which represents cotton merchandisers. "If you're planting in an area prone to high winds, you can plant a hearty variety with a thicker stalk."

  • That, plus technology such as irrigation, cotton strippers and chemical fertilizers, have helped turn cotton into one of the nation's most successful crops. "Today, we can harvest more cotton in one day than my daddy could in a whole season," says David Jones, 68, a cotton farmer who lives south of Lubbock.

  • The USA is the world's largest cotton exporter; China, the largest importer.
On to other topics....here's an article that discusses what I think will become the number one topic of 2005. The replacement of Greenspan. Read here. My favorite quip in the article is from Drew Matus, "Hiring a Fed chairman is like firing a missile. There's no recall button." The article lists the candidates as:
Do me a favor and review each of the links above. Each one should take you to a picture and bio of the person. Spend a few seconds looking at the picture and glancing at the bio. Make your decision on 1) who you think should be the new Fed Chairman and 2) who will be chosen as the Fed Chairman by Bush. The less you know of these people the better. Mark down your decision and keep it with you. See how your Blink process performs.

Later Trades...

Monday, January 31, 2005

Case of the Muundays

Interesting article from BizJournals.com about Ed Noonan, founder of Contravisory Research & Management Corp. Mr. Noonan focuses on long-term price-trend analysis for the stock market. His work sounds very interesting. If you check out his website you can even find out more in regard to his research and analysis of price trends and their relation to the overall market and sectors.

If you're interested in the entrepreneur side of things...check out BizJournals.com. Each day a couple of stories about small businesses are portrayed. Always interesting and sometimes a good idea generator.

Later Trades...

Daily Systems

New System Triggers
  • Close FO (BreakUp) long position at Tuesday's market open.
Recently Closed Trades
  • none.
Current Open Systems
Symbol System Entry Date Exit Date Profit/Loss%
MGF BreakUp
1/19/2005 open +0.75%
FO Breakup
1/24/2005 open +4.98%



Total +5.74%

Please read the disclaimer on the website. This is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or trade securities. Just a journal of my travels through Wall Street. I can buy, sell, or hold any positions mentioned on this website at anytime. So, be warned.

Weekend Update

Daily Systems

New System Triggers
  • none.
Recently Closed Trades
  • Closed QQQQ (ATRBreakBB) long position with a -3.77% loss.
Current Open Systems
Symbol System Entry Date Exit Date Profit/Loss%
MGF BreakUp
1/19/2005 open +0.60%
FO Breakup
1/24/2005 open +3.09%



Total +3.69%

Weekly Systems

New System Triggers
  • Close CARN (PennyLag) long position at Monday's market open.
Recently Closed Trades
  • Closed EGHT (PennyLag) long position at -29.67% profit.
  • Closed ZICA (PennyLag) long position at +32.49% profit.
  • Closed QQQQ (TurtleTrader) long position at -7.78% profit.

Current Open Systems

Symbol System Entry Date Exit Date Profit/Loss%
QQQQ SimpleUp 1/4/2005 open -2.71%
AATKPennyLag1/5/2005 open-25.40%
CARN PennyLag 1/7/2005 open +2.01%
HAUP PennyLag 1/7/2005 open -16.56%
DDDC PennyLag 1/18/2005 open -2.00%
DCTH PennyLag 1/24/2005 open +18.13%



Total -26.53%

Please read the disclaimer on the website. This is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or trade securities. Just a journal of my travels through Wall Street. I can buy, sell, or hold any positions mentioned on this website at anytime. So, be warned.

Friday, January 28, 2005

Quick Little Ditty

Ran across an interesting interview with Marc Perkins. Read part1 and part2. Marc tells a great little story on Warren Buffett:
I used to trade with him when I was at Salomon . He was a customer of Salomon back in the early '70s, and I can remember when he was buying bank stocks in 1971, the doggy banks, not the growth stock banks. He was buying Harris Trust. And the Manufacturer's Hanover Trust department called up and said they had a big block of stock in Harris Trust for sale. Buffett had a trader, a fellow by the name of Bill Scott in his office in Omaha. And we called Bill Scott and said, "We got a block of Harris Trust for sale." The stock was around $49 and he said, "I'll pay $47." And so we called Manny Hanny back and told them he said he'd pay $47 and they said, "That's ridiculous, down 2 points. That's crazy." Of course, Harris Trust didn't trade very much, so Buffett was the only buyer around.

So we called Scott back and said, "The seller won't go below the market. They'll sell it for 48.5," and Buffett's response was, "Tell them we're not interested." So, we call Manny Hanny back and say, "There are no bids." "What do you mean no bids?" they say. "Tell 'em I'll sell 'em at 47." So Buffett's guy says, "47 is no good any more. We've gone on to something else and we're just not interested." So the Manny Hanny guy couldn't believe that somebody just walked away. So he now starts calling everybody on the Street trying to sell and the next thing you know, the stock is around 44. And he'd call us back back and ask, "Can you buy it now?" And I would call Buffett back and he would say, "I'll pay 42."

That's his whole deal. Iron-willed discipline. People who know what they know and know what they're good at survive over time.
Marc also reveals one of the wisest pieces of advice anyone has ever given to him:
"The secret to success is knowing when you have enough information to make a decision." - Jim Walter of the Jim Walter Corporation
Here's another post from an edited transcript of a talk by none other than Warren Buffett himself. In it Buffett talks about The Super Investors of Graham-and-Doddsville. Read here.

Well, enjoy the posts and have a wonderful weekend. It's raining here in Texas and a bit nippy. I'm hoping to spend the weekend resting my brain from all the system work I've been performing. Read a few good books: The New Laws of the Stock Market Jungle by Michael J. Panzer, Hot Commodities by Jim Rogers, and Blink: The Power of Thinking Without Thinking by Malcolm Gladwell. And of course, play a few games of CandyLand with my daughter. :)

Later Trades.

Thursday, January 27, 2005

Fed Chair History

  • Daytraders out there need to check out the action in EAT. The market maker for that stock is making some serious coin.
  • The BreakUp system really missed out on the ACV trade. Just one more day would have been really nice. The ACV trade was closed at the open today and then proceeded to surge 5% beyond that opening price.
  • Need a little help from my readers. I'm doing some research on the history of Federal Reserve Chairmen. Anyone know the starting month for Benjamin Strong's tenure as Fed Chair?
  • Also, what's the deal with Ronald Ransom? I believe he died while Fed Chair and then McCabe was appointed. But, don't know the actual tenure timeline or starting month. Review the list below and let me know of any errors.
Federal Reserve Chairman in History
Benjamin Strong (starting month: ?; served: 1914 - 1928)
Marriner Eccles (starting month: February; 1936 - 1948)
Ronald Ransom (starting month: ?; served: ?)
Thomas McCabe (starting month: April; served: 1948 - 1951)
William McChesney Martin (starting month: April; served: 1951 - 1970)
Arthur Burns (starting month: February; served: 1970 - 1978)
G. William Miller (starting month: March; served: 1978 - 1979)
Paul Volcker (starting month: August; served: 1979 - 1987)
Alan Greenspan (starting month: August; served: 1987-current)

Thanks!

Daily Systems

New System Triggers
  • Close QQQQ (ATRBreakBB) long position at Friday's market open.
Recently Closed Trades
  • Closed QQQQ (MidWeekDrops) long position with a -0.62% loss.
  • Closed ACV (BreakUp) long position with a +3.96% profit.
  • Closed EAT (BreakUp) long position with a +2.96% profit.
Current Open Systems
Symbol System Entry Date Exit Date Profit/Loss%
QQQQ ATRBreakBB
1/5/2005 open -4.08%
MGF BreakUp
1/19/2005 open +0.60%
FO Breakup
1/24/2005 open +2.83%



Total -0.65%

Please read the disclaimer on the website. This is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or trade securities. Just a journal of my travels through Wall Street. I can buy, sell, or hold any positions mentioned on this website at anytime. So, be warned.

Wednesday, January 26, 2005

John Henry and Airbrushing Models

Very interesting Q & A with John Henry. Read here.

I admire how John has full confidence in his systems...especially in the drawdowns. I'm sure the biggest key to his performance is not deleveraging during heavy drawdowns. By staying fully leveraged he is able to snap back to prior highs. Of course, in the wrong hands this could be another Long Term Capital. So, not only confidence in your system is key...but your system's validity is an even bigger key.

Also interesting how he chooses to deleverage due to profit. And how they will look at various charts priced in different currencies.

That brings up a long-term gripe I have about some forms of technical analysis. I used to eyeball charts...up to 1500 a night. Looking for patterns that matched what I considered to be "winning charts".

The problem with this approach is that many factors change on a stock chart when a stock begins advancing. Splits, dividends, volatility, etc. You look back at a chart and might see a nice tight range then a breakout that leads to a 100% or more movement in price. You get that "aha" moment that you need to look for nice tight ranges and buy the breakouts.

Problem with this approach, is often times those "tight ranges" are only created after a 40% to 50% upward move in the stock.

Split-adjusted stocks are even more fun. They make many stocks look as if they rose from mere pennies when in fact they got their start at a much higher price. Fools several beginning investors into thinking they need to look at penny stocks in order to find the next Starbucks.

Okay, enough griping before I piss off anymore die hard chart readers.

Seriously, I still review charts every night. Always will. There's no better way to tell what's going on with a stock for me. But, realize you're often times looking at a Maxim Magazine cover spread. Airbrush and all. Looks can be deceiving.

Later trades.


Daily Systems

New System Triggers
  • Close QQQQ (MidWeekDrops) long position at Thursday's market open.
  • Close ACV (BreakUp) long position at Thursday's market open.
  • Close EAT (BreakUp) long position at Thursday's market open.
Recently Closed Trades
  • none
Current Open Systems
Symbol System Entry Date Exit Date Profit/Loss%
QQQQ ATRBreakBB
1/5/2005 open -3.96%
ACV BreakUp
1/7/2005 open +1.01%
MGF BreakUp
1/19/2005 open +0.60%
QQQQ MidWeekDrops
1/24/2005 open +1.03%
FO Breakup
1/24/2005 open +2.70%
EAT Breakup
1/25/2005 open +4.33%**



Total +5.71%

Note: EAT opened late on the NYSE exchange and its very possible the actual opening print was much higher than the $36.52 quoted in the various data providers.

Please read the disclaimer on the website. This is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or trade securities. Just a journal of my travels through Wall Street. I can buy, sell, or hold any positions mentioned on this website at anytime. So, be warned.

Tuesday, January 25, 2005

Bad Fill

Frustrated with my broker today. I decided to take the EAT trade this morning and received a horrible fill at the opening print. Just horrible.

If anyone has a good broker to recommend please pass them my way. To be honest, I don't really need much in the way of online brokerage services. I would even prefer to just call or email my order in. Pretty much the only type of orders I place are market orders at the open. Anyway, if you have a good broker...let me know either via comments or email at mike@taylortree.com. I'd appreciate your input.

Daily Systems

New System Triggers
  • none
Recently Closed Trades
  • none
Current Open Systems
Symbol System Entry Date Exit Date Profit/Loss%
QQQQ ATRBreakBB
1/5/2005 open -5.09%
ACV BreakUp
1/7/2005 open +0.57%
MGF BreakUp
1/19/2005 open +0.30%
QQQQ MidWeekDrops
1/24/2005 open -0.16%
FO Breakup
1/24/2005 open +2.94%
EAT Breakup
1/25/2005 open +1.92%**



Total +0.48%

Note: EAT opened late on the NYSE exchange and its very possible the actual opening print was much higher than the $36.52 quoted in the various data providers.

Please read the disclaimer on the website. This is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or trade securities. Just a journal of my travels through Wall Street. I can buy, sell, or hold any positions mentioned on this website at anytime. So, be warned.

Monday, January 24, 2005

Jim Rogers Interview

Check out RealWorldTrading.com's interview with Jim Rogers. Read here. And during my vist to the site I found a nice interview of Charles Cottle. Read here.

Working hard on trading systems development. My eyes are bloodshot, my brain is fried, and I need rest. But, can't stop. My system development juices are flowing again. Yeah!

I will most likely remove the trading system signals for the QQQQ systems. I found some interesting dynamics between the various index systems and I'm now certain these need to be used as an indicator instead of individual systems. So, I'll close the posting of QQQQ systems after the close of the MidWeeksDrops system. Hopefully, in the next few weeks I'll be able to post the indicator chart. That is if I'm still alive. :)

Daily Systems

New System Triggers
  • Enter EAT (BreakUp) long position at Tuesday's market open. Note: earnings will be announced Tuesday around 9:00am. This is an event that isn't backtested very well in the BreakUp System. So, I'm not sure I will take this trade. Might be better to watch and learn how the system handles this type of event.
Recently Closed Trades
  • Closed CB (BreakUp) long position with a -4.09% loss.
Current Open Systems
Symbol System Entry Date Exit Date Profit/Loss%
QQQQ ATRBreakBB
1/5/2005 open -4.21%
ACV BreakUp
1/7/2005 open +0.10%
MGF BreakUp
1/19/2005 open 0.00%
QQQQ MidWeekDrops
1/24/2005 open -1.27%
FO Breakup
1/24/2005 open +0.87%



Total -4.51%

Please read the disclaimer on the website. This is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or trade securities. Just a journal of my travels through Wall Street. I can buy, sell, or hold any positions mentioned on this website at anytime. So, be warned.