"If you're ridin' ahead of the herd, take a look back every now and then to make sure it's still there with ya."
Win Ratio: 69.23%Actually, not bad considering it's a first run. The profit factor of 12.54 is really nice considering I typically receive profit factors on first runs in the 5 to 8 range...if the idea has merit. Maybe we're on to something? :)
Avg Profit: 180.34%
Max Consecutive Winners: 8
Avg Loss: -30.68%
Max Consecutive Losers: 2
Max Drawdown: -8.12%
Profit Factor: 12.54
"Winners compare their achievements with their goals, while losers compare their achievements with those of other people." -- Nido Qubein
"All progress is precarious, and the solution of one problem brings us face to face with another problem." -- Martin Luther King Jr.
"To me trend following is more than an investment philosophy it is a way of life. Once I became familiar with how to stick with what is working and get rid of what is not, my personal life as well as my trading saw vast improvements. Unhealthy relationships and losing trades are cut and all I am left with are winning trades and rewarding, supportive relationships." -- Jason Dekker
"Trend following at its core is "simple", but the key lies in the consistent execution of a positive expectation system over time." -- Michael Covel.
XYZ stock closed at $30.00.
Average True Range (ATR) for 5 days: $4.00
ATR Multiplier: 3
ATR Trailing Stop := Close - (ATR * Multiplier) := $30.00 - ($4.00 * 3) := $18.00.
XYZ stock closed at $30.00.
The average closing price of past 20 days: $27.00
Average True Range (ATR) for 5 days: $4.00
ATR Multiplier: 3
ATR Trailing Stop := AverageClose - (ATR * Multiplier) := $27.00 - ($4.00 * 3) := $15.00.
"Only as you do know yourself can your brain serve you as a sharp and efficient tool. Know your own failings, passions, and prejudices so you can separate them from what you see." -- Bernard Baruch
"Don't judge each day by the harvest you reap, but by the seeds you plant." -- Robert Louis Stevenson
"In these times, when so much is written about the "money supply" and when some observers assert that an abundance of money will forestall a slump, it is interesting to note this comment by Senator Burton: "...paradoxical as it may seem, the starting point for crises and depressions may be found in abundance rather than in scarcity, whether of money or capital." -- Humphrey B. Neill in his book, The Art of Contrary Thinking, which was first printed in 1954.
"The reason the contrarian needs to be aware of history, in this regard, is because changes in trend occur before the masses are consciously observant of the fact. Also, because when socio-political conditions seem to revolve and repeat, the average person (of brief memory) is unaware of the "cycle" and is likely to think that a "new" condition has developed." -- Humphrey B. Neil
"Things should be made as simple as possible, but not any simpler." -- Albert Einstein
"Listen to what the market is saying about others; not what others are saying about the market." -- Richard Wyckoff
"Seeds are a lot like dollars. You can eat the seeds or sow them. But when you would see what seeds turned into...ten-foot-high corn...you don't want to waste them. Consume them or plant them. I always get a kick out of watching things grow." -- quote from Millionaire Next Door
Self-employed people make up less than 20% of the workers in America but account for two-thirds of the millionaires.
About half of the millionaire's wives do not work outside the home. The number-one occupation for those wives who do work is teacher.
About 80% of millionaires are first-generation affluent.
Have more than 6 1/2 times the level of wealth of their nonmillionaire neighbors, but, these nonmillionaire neighbors outnumber us better than 3 to 1.
How to determine if you're wealthy? Multiply your age times your gross annual income and divide that figure by 10. This figure is what your net worth should be. For example, if your gross annual income is $70,000 and age is 34...then you're net worth should be $238,000. If your well under that figure...you're an UAW (under accumulator of wealth). If well over that figure...a PAW (prodigious accumulator of wealth).
The first time we interviewed a group of people worth at least $10 million (decamillionaires), the session turned out differently than we had planned. To make sure our decamillionaire respondents felt comfortable during the interview, we rented a posh penthouse on Manhattan's fashionable East Side. We also hired two gourmet food designers. They put together a menu of four pates and three kinds of caviar. To accompany this, the designers suggested a case of high-quality 1970 Bordeaux plus a case of a "wonderful" 1973 cabernet sauvignon.
Armed with what we thought would be the ideal menu, we enthusiastically awaited the arrival of our decamillionaire respondents. The first to arrive was someone we nick-named Mr. Bud. Sixty-nine and a first-generation millionaire, Mr. Bud owned several valuable pieces of commercial real estate in New York metropolitan area. He also owned two businesses. You would never have figured out from his appearance that he was worth well over $10 million. His dress was what you might call dull-normal...a well-worn suit and overcoat.
Nevertheless, we wanted to make Mr. Bud feel that we fully understood the food and drink expectations of America's decamillionaires. So after we introduced ourselves, one of us asked, "Mr. Bud, may I pour you a glass of 1970 Bordeaux?"
Mr. Bud looked at us with a puzzled expression on his face and then said: "I drink scotch and two kinds of beer -- free and BUDWEISER!"
We hid our shock as the true meaning of our decamillionaire's message dawned upon us. During the subsequent two-hour interview, the nine decamillionaire respondents shifted constantly in their chairs. Occasionally they glanced at the buffet. But not one touched the pate or drank our vintage wines. We knew they were hungry, but all they ate were gourmet crackers.
When we interview millionaires these days, we offer a spread that is more congruent with their way of life. We provide them with coffee, soft drinks, beer, scotch, and club sandwiches. Of course, we also pay them between $100 and $250 apiece.
What are the three words that profile the affluent? FRUGAL FRUGAL FRUGAL.
"One myth that appears to be imploding along with the market is the notion that investors should “passively” buy the market via the S&P 500 Index ($INX) rather than buying individual stocks."
"This is not just a question of one company picking better stocks than the other. It’s a question of a flawed design that rewards sector momentum over common sense. Unlike most index publishers, such as the Nasdaq and Dow Jones, Standard & Poor’s adds and subtracts stocks from its three broad indexes -- the large-cap 500, the Midcap 400 ($MID.X) and the Smallcap 600 ($SML.X) frequently in accordance with a largely subjective list of criteria that includes market capitalization, liquidity and their representation of industrial sectors."
"It’s the latter criteria that got S&P into trouble in 2000 as it tried to keep pace with the explosive 1999 performance of the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 ($NDX.X). Every month a number-cruncher at S&P adds up the total capitalization of all 9,000 or so stocks traded on U.S. exchanges, and determines the percentage representation of each broad industrial sector, such as technology, health care and capital goods. After technology stocks roared into favor in the late 1990s, S&P found that the market had given an 18% weighting to tech stocks while its index only had a 14% weighting. So the committee considered itself obligated to raise its weighting in tech stocks in short order."
"In 2002, S&P has continued its tradition of adding fast-rising stocks in the most popular industrial sectors to the S&P 500. In time, we will determine whether they were reflecting economic changes or simply the market momentum of regional banks, real-estate investment trusts, insurance and home improvement products. Top adds so far, in order of inclusion, are Plum Creek Timber (PCL), Ace Limited (ACE), Rational Software (RATL), Marshall and Ilsley (MI), First Tennessee National (FTN), American Standard (ASD), BJ Services (BJS), Apollo Group (APOL) and Simon Property Group (SPG)"
"We should be careful to get out of an experience only the wisdom that is in it — and stop there; lest we be like the cat that sits down on a hot stove lid. She will never sit on a hot stove lid again — and that is well; but also she will never sit down on a cold one anymore." -- Mark Twain
All who succeed in life get off to a bad start, and pass through many heart-breaking struggles before they "arrive." The turning point in the lives of those who succeed, usually comes at the moment of some crisis, through which they are introduced to their "other selves." -- Napoleon Hill
Crop tree management is very similar to thinning carrots in a garden. If you leave too many carrot seedlings, you end up with many scrawny carrots and few nice ones at the end of the season. It works the same way with trees.
Crop tree management is a technique developed to generate high-value sawlogs. This makes your woodlot more valuable and increases the financial return from your trees. This technique usually does not apply very well to pulpwood production. In crop tree management, as few as five to more than ten trees per acre can be selected as candidate “crop trees.” Crop trees are the best trees in the woodlot. These are the trees that will be kept in the forest to grow in size and value. This does NOT mean that a landowner cuts all of the other trees, but instead means that the crop trees get special treatment that is not given to the others. A crop tree is usually:
• A long-lived and desirable species
• Straight and tall
• Free of obvious disease
• Free of defects, especially large wounds
• In the uppermost canopy layer (in a dominant or co-dominant position)
When selecting crop trees, it is important to note that the tree does not need to be large, just in the upper canopy. Some of the biggest gains in value can come from trees that are 6–10 inches now, but will be 12–14 inches or more at the final sale.
After the candidate trees have been selected, the trees that are directly competing with them are removed. This usually means trying to release the crowns (the top) of the crop trees from competition on three or four sides. After the treatment, the crowns of the crop trees should be separated from adjacent trees by about 15 feet. This will allow the tree to grow with much less competition and to put on much greater volumes of high-value new wood. These few, really good quality trees usually hold most of the value in the stand when cut for sawtimber.
Crop stock management is very similar to thinning carrots in a garden. If you leave too many carrot seedlings, you end up with many scrawny carrots and few nice ones at the end of the season. It works the same way with stocks.
Crop stock management is a technique developed to generate super stocks. This makes your investment portfolio more valuable and increases the financial return from your stocks. This technique usually does not apply very well to daytrading strategies. In crop stock management, as few as five to more than ten stocks per portfolio can be selected as candidate “crop stocks.” Crop stocks are the best stocks in the portfolio. These are the stocks that will be kept in the portfolio to grow in size and value. This does NOT mean that an investor sells all of the other stocks, but instead means that the crop stocks get special treatment that is not given to the others. A crop stock is usually:
• A long-lived and desirable stock
• Uptrend that is tight and strong
• Free of obvious disease - unprofitable, high debt, etc.
• Free of defects, especially large wounds - facing bankruptcy, lawsuits, etc.
• In the uppermost canopy layer (in a dominant or co-dominant position) - new highs dominate the chart
When selecting crop stocks, it is important to note that the stock does not need to be highly liquid, just in the upper canopy. Some of the biggest gains in value can come from stocks that are thinly followed now, but will be heavily followed by the final sale.
And he knew that the huge productivity increases that would come from a better machine introduced into the production of a commodity product would all go to the benefit of the buyers of the textiles. Nothing was going to stick to our ribs as owners.
That's such an obvious concept - that there are all kinds of wonderful new inventions that give you nothing as owners except the opportunity to spend a lot more money in a business that's still going to be lousy.The money still won't come to you. All of the advantages from great improvements are going to flow through to the customers.
"If the price of automobiles were going up 40% a year, you'd have a boom in auto stocks. But if you stop to think about it, of the companies that you could have bought in, say, 1911, to hold for a long time, one of the very best stocks would have been Rockefeller's Standard Oil Trust. It became almost all of today's integrated oil companies." -- Charlie Munger
