Friday, December 09, 2005

Crop Stock Management

Found a great article over at the University of Minnesota's Extension Service that relates to the tree business I referred to in my previous post. There's a section in the article that discusses Crop Tree Management. Here's part of the text:
Crop tree management is very similar to thinning carrots in a garden. If you leave too many carrot seedlings, you end up with many scrawny carrots and few nice ones at the end of the season. It works the same way with trees.

Crop tree management is a technique developed to generate high-value sawlogs. This makes your woodlot more valuable and increases the financial return from your trees. This technique usually does not apply very well to pulpwood production. In crop tree management, as few as five to more than ten trees per acre can be selected as candidate “crop trees.” Crop trees are the best trees in the woodlot. These are the trees that will be kept in the forest to grow in size and value. This does NOT mean that a landowner cuts all of the other trees, but instead means that the crop trees get special treatment that is not given to the others. A crop tree is usually:

• A long-lived and desirable species
• Straight and tall
• Free of obvious disease
• Free of defects, especially large wounds
• In the uppermost canopy layer (in a dominant or co-dominant position)

When selecting crop trees, it is important to note that the tree does not need to be large, just in the upper canopy. Some of the biggest gains in value can come from trees that are 6–10 inches now, but will be 12–14 inches or more at the final sale.

After the candidate trees have been selected, the trees that are directly competing with them are removed. This usually means trying to release the crowns (the top) of the crop trees from competition on three or four sides. After the treatment, the crowns of the crop trees should be separated from adjacent trees by about 15 feet. This will allow the tree to grow with much less competition and to put on much greater volumes of high-value new wood. These few, really good quality trees usually hold most of the value in the stand when cut for sawtimber.

Now, what does that have to do with investing? Hmmm.... Let me convert the above text into what my mind saw:
Crop stock management is very similar to thinning carrots in a garden. If you leave too many carrot seedlings, you end up with many scrawny carrots and few nice ones at the end of the season. It works the same way with stocks.

Crop stock management is a technique developed to generate super stocks. This makes your investment portfolio more valuable and increases the financial return from your stocks. This technique usually does not apply very well to daytrading strategies. In crop stock management, as few as five to more than ten stocks per portfolio can be selected as candidate “crop stocks.” Crop stocks are the best stocks in the portfolio. These are the stocks that will be kept in the portfolio to grow in size and value. This does NOT mean that an investor sells all of the other stocks, but instead means that the crop stocks get special treatment that is not given to the others. A crop stock is usually:

• A long-lived and desirable stock
• Uptrend that is tight and strong
• Free of obvious disease - unprofitable, high debt, etc.
• Free of defects, especially large wounds - facing bankruptcy, lawsuits, etc.
• In the uppermost canopy layer (in a dominant or co-dominant position) - new highs dominate the chart

When selecting crop stocks, it is important to note that the stock does not need to be highly liquid, just in the upper canopy. Some of the biggest gains in value can come from stocks that are thinly followed now, but will be heavily followed by the final sale.

By applying Crop Stock Management to our investment portfolios...perhaps we can grow crop stocks into super stocks .

Later Trades,

MT

Wednesday, December 07, 2005

Improvements ain't all that!

How's that for a title? Well, that's something I've always ranted and raved on for years and years. My contention has always been...this world we live in is zero-sum. You can't improve anything without taking something away. So, improvement is dependent upon which person you talk to.

Corporate farms have enabled us to consume our milk, eggs, bacon, hamburgers, steaks, etc. all at a price that is easy to stomach since we never have to step foot onto a farm or ranch. Especially considering John F. Kennedy's quote, "The farmer is the only business man who buys at retail, sells at wholesale and pays the freight both ways."

But, this improvement on farming came at a cost...to the cottage farmer. Gene Logsdon brilliantly highlights these costs in his classic book, The Contrary Farmer.

So, what's my point? Not much...just trying to find a nice little segue into the following article I found over on DeepWealth. Read here. It's an extract from Charlie Munger's speech on what technology improvements can do to a company...person...a commodity. Favorite part?
And he knew that the huge productivity increases that would come from a better machine introduced into the production of a commodity product would all go to the benefit of the buyers of the textiles. Nothing was going to stick to our ribs as owners.

That's such an obvious concept - that there are all kinds of wonderful new inventions that give you nothing as owners except the opportunity to spend a lot more money in a business that's still going to be lousy.The money still won't come to you. All of the advantages from great improvements are going to flow through to the customers.

The great part about that statement is just how true it is. I have witnessed this effect time and time again in regard to technological improvements made in business. The crazy part...besides myself?

Most people never hit the conclusion that Buffett came to so quickly. Is it really worth doing if I have to invest all this capital only to keep up? Now, I'm not saying we should halt all progress...Close the mill...so to speak. Just trying to make the point that improving our lives...our businesses...the world, comes at a cost.

High-speed Internet? How's that family you never see?

Great investing tools...clean reliable stock data feeds...real-time scan streamers? How's the hunt for those market inefficiencies coming? And at what cost? Only to keep up?

Nice car? Yeah? How's that 45 minute commute?

Nice house? How's that mortgage?

My dad used to mention how it took him 25 to 30 hits to find oil back in the day...now it takes only 2 or 3. But, the cost is the same if not higher.

So, what to do...what to do? To me, I've always thought you should take into account all costs of the improvement (both real and lost) and figure out if there's a way to break off from the pack and create value in a different area and with that capital from the so-called "improvement".

How does this relate to trading? Hmmm...Let's see...if everyone is focusing on short-term returns and investing more and more capital into trading technologies to generate those returns...then how are you ever going to get ahead? Cause let's admit it...the margins are pretty crummy anyway. Technology is only going to reduce those margins further. So, maybe we need to do as Gene Logsdon suggests and break away from the pack....if everyone is going short-term...go long-term baby! Maybe Buffett said it best...

"Someone's sitting in the shade today because someone planted a tree a long time ago."

Just maybe we need to look into the tree business. That is after all one of the top search hits on this site. :)

Later Trades,

MT

Monday, December 05, 2005

Quote of the Week

This week's quote comes from a great find by The Buffett Blog. An interview with Charlie Munger from Kiplinger.

The quote?
"If the price of automobiles were going up 40% a year, you'd have a boom in auto stocks. But if you stop to think about it, of the companies that you could have bought in, say, 1911, to hold for a long time, one of the very best stocks would have been Rockefeller's Standard Oil Trust. It became almost all of today's integrated oil companies." -- Charlie Munger

Wow! Munger has given us all something to chew on for awhile. What will fuel the next 100 years?

Later Trades,

MT

Monday, November 28, 2005

Quote of the Week

"When there are no fish in one spot, cast your net in another." -- Chinese Proverb

How many of you get stuck in your trading? Can't seem to make progress? Well, sometimes the fish just aren't there to catch. You can work as hard as you want and still catch nada. The key is to cast that net until you find fish.

What happens when no more fish are caught? You must move on...because the fish already have.

Later Trades,

MT

Tuesday, November 22, 2005

Taylor Turkey System

Once again it's that time of year...time with family, counting of blessings, stuffing your face...and most of all...the Taylor Turkey System!!! For those unfamiliar with the system you can read the original post here and the follow-up here.

Under the system, you purchase the index on Wednesday (day before Thanksgiving) and sell the Monday after Thanksgiving. How will it perform this year? Ah, should be interesting. Will I invest my hard-earned money? No, probably not. While it's a fun little system showcasing the holiday effect...just too few data points for me. But, with a quick and dirty test on the current Nasdaq 100 stocks...you earn a profit factor of 3.15. Of course, that's not counting commissions and slippage. Still, not too shabby for turkey lurkey day.

Well, gotta get...some more system work to do. Just what kind of stuff am I working on? Hmmm...let's see...it involves a bit of Bill Cara's Value Line Research, Victor Neiderhoffer's Triumph of the Optimist, Michael Covel's Trend Following post, and Ben Bernanke's MO.

I hope all is great with you and yours. Everyone have a wonderful Thanksgiving.

P.S. TraderMike needs to start working on those New Year's Resolutions for 2006! Time is a tickin! Ha ha!

Later Trades,

MT

Monday, November 21, 2005

Quote of the Week - Decision

Analysis of over twenty-five thousand men and women who have experienced failure disclosed the fact that lack of decision was near the head of the list of the thirty-one major causes of failure.

Procrastination, the opposite of decision, is a common enemy which practically every man must conquer.

Analysis of several hundred people who had accumulated fortunes well beyond the million-dollar mark disclosed the fact that every one of them had the habit of reaching decisions promptly, and of changing these decisions slowly, if and when they were changed. People who fail to accumulate money, without exception, have the habit of reaching decisions very slowly, if at all, and of changing these decisions quickly and often.
I believe these quotes are from Think and Grow Rich by Napoleon Hill. But, found them in the MasterMind Forums here.

These quotes are the type that should be read more than once. Allowed to soak in your brain. Stew over. Or as they say where I'm from, "Chew on for awhile."

And one last one from Hill for dessert:
"You must get involved to have an impact. No one is impressed with the won-lost record of the referee."

Later Trades,

MT

Monday, November 14, 2005

Quote of the Week


"Try a thing you haven't done three times.
Once, to get over the fear of doing it.
Twice, to learn how to do it.
And the third time, to figure out whether you like it or not."
-- Robert Evans (creator of Godfather)


Great words of wisdom. Especially for ADD'ers like myself. Easy to get frustrated with something and cross it off your list forever without ever taking the time to find out whether you truly like it or not.

The quote was from Robert Evans. Ever heard of him? I hadn't before I found this quote a few years back. Evans has lived quite an interesting life. Read this interview for some particulars, and don't miss out on how Evans discovers "The Smile"....aka Jack Nicholson.

Friday, November 11, 2005

New Blog Find

Found a very interesting blogger, Arpit Ranka via The Learning Blog's links.

Check out his post on The Reminiscences of an Infant Investor. I quite like his behavioral bent to investing/trading.

Favorite lesson from his post? "Lesson 2: You are not as smart as you think you are."

Ain't it the truth.

The site also has several great quotes sprinkled throughout. Such as this one from Pascal: "Heart has its reasons, that reasons don't understand." Nice!

MT

Serenity Now


oil_rig_net, originally uploaded by TaylorTree.

Well, this might not give the old oil rig workers much serenity now...more like the bad memories, nightly sweats from before. :)

Seriously, this is what you had to climb in on if you wanted to do offshore work in the gulf.

My dad is the 2nd on the right. Picture taken in 1954.

MT

Nassim Taleb Interview

Weird that I checked Taleb's site the other night and found the Notebook. And then noticed I'm ranking #1 on blogsearch.google.com and #2 on Technorati.com for "Nassim Taleb" searches. From Technorati I found a recent interview with Taleb from SmartMoney.com here. Great interview by the way. Here are some of my favorite parts:
Psychologists ran experiments to see how people absorb information. In one experiment they found people who work with racehorses, and asked them to name up to 50 pieces of information they would need [to determine if it was going to be a winner]. They ranked them by order of importance. They took the 10 most important ones out of 50 and looked at the prediction of accuracy to determine if a horse will win a race. Then they took the 20 most important pieces, then the 30. In the end, you had no gain in predictive power beyond the first 10 pieces of information, but a huge gain of overconfidence...

It's the market that creates the indicator, not the indicator that creates the market.

To become Bill Gates you need more luck than skill. But to become a prosperous person, you need more skill than luck.

I believe Warren Buffett has skills, but probably two-thirds of it comes from an environment that helped him.

I am unable to predict markets, but I know it.

The favorite quote being the Bill Gates more luck than skill. I've referenced that type of thinking back in this post on Relativity by Dr. Mike Ott here. I strongly believe that environment makes up at least 2/3 of a person's success. The other 1/3? Ah, that's your edge.

Got Edge?

MT

Random Markets?

Check out the Coin Toss Simulation - Visualizing Randomness from this link. Enter an amount in the Number of coin tosses box and press the "Simulate" button. Go ahead...enter 500000. Hmmm....

MT

Thursday, November 10, 2005

Taleb's Notebook

Occasionaly, I peruse Nassim Taleb's site just to get a reality check on my system development activities. Tonight, I noticed Taleb has setup a Notebook that he notes is not quite a blog (funny). Read it here.

Not much happening on the homefront. Busily evaluating a trading idea....while the list of new ones rapidly pile on my desk. Speaking of desk notes...I have to really thank one of the commentors on this blog for recommending EverNote. I was very reluctant at first especially since it involved organizing my thoughts from the scattered scraps of paper and journals to a forum that's neat, tidy, and structured. But, I've really grown to like this little product. I'm slowly but surely beginning to keep everything stored in EverNote and the pile of notes are becoming electronic in form. Kinda cool. At least my wife thinks so. :)

This weekend? Somehow got wrangled into installing ceramic tile in my dad's kitchen. Hows' that for a howdy-do? But, it should be fun and filled with adventure. I'm just afraid the rest of the family will see the results and want more of the same. They'll just have to wait because dad has bigger plans for this computer geek...hardwood flooring!

One last thing...check out the movie Dreamer with Kurt Russell, Dakota Fanning, and Kris Kristofferson. I was really surprised...my wife and I saw it on our date night and I thought it had chick flick written all over it. That might be...still a good heart-warming movie that showcases the struggle of safety and stability against risk and opportunity.

Enjoy your weekend!

MT

Monday, November 07, 2005

Quote of the Week - Einstein

"It's not that I am so smart, it's just that I stay with problems longer." -- Albert Einstein

Boy, Albert, I sure hope you're right. Cause I've been trying to figure out this market for a heck of a long time!

Question is...how long should you stay with the problem versus cutting your losses and moving on to something else? How many other Einstein's have stayed with the problem til' their dying day...never solving the problem?

To test this theory out...

Try picking stocks and setting a profit target of 50% and don't sell until they hit it. Only two possible outcomes to this test: Stock will hit the profit target Or it won't. Time is removed from the equation except for the length of your lifespan. If the profit target is hit...you'll have found an Einstein.

Same Test as above but exit the stock if 50% target is not reached within a year. Same possible outcomes as the prior test but Time is added to the equation.

Are you better for your Sticktoitiveness or for Cutting Losses Short?

P.S. Would be interesting to see how many stocks bought the day of their IPO acheive their profit target and go on to become Einstein's? Would we consider 50% gain worthy of Einstein status? 100%? 300%?

Later Trades,

MT

Friday, November 04, 2005

Quote of the Week

Since I couldn't find a picture for this week's Serenity Now...I've decided to post a Quote of the Week. I actually thought of today's Quote of the Week from a discussion I've had with Jon Tait (FickleTrader) in regard to burning the midnight oil in an effort to build our systems.

"The Heights by Great Men Reached and Kept were not Attained by Sudden Flight, but They, while their Companions Slept, were Toiling Upward in the Night." -- Henry Wadsworth Longfellow

Maybe I'll try to post a Quote of the Week every Monday.

Have a good weekend everybody! My plans? Well, I plan to put my daughter to work. She received a rocking chair from her Papa on her birthday. And she would like it finished the color purple. So, her and I will sand and prime the chair this weekend. Should be fun.

MT

Wednesday, November 02, 2005

System Analyzer and Y2K

I've been working on a heck of a project. I'm trying to create my own System Edge Analyzer using a bit of Python and mostly R. I still have much work ahead but thought I'd give you a preview as to the initial output of the project. And no, the FathersDay Edge is not about trading on Father's Day. I named it after the day I stumbled upon the edge which happened to be Father's Day.

Also, check out Jon Tait's discussion on Profit Factor and his sneak peak of his backtesting project.

System Analyzer - FathersDay Edge



Sector Return Trades WinPct AvgPL AvgWin AvgLoss PFactor Sharpe
1 Overall 20375.77 9510 78 2.14 5.3 -8.91 2.11 0.3
11 pyAerospaceDefense 50.2 15 73 2.6 4.56 -2.81 4.39 65
12 pyAutomotive 267.02 71 63 0.39 5.93 -9.21 1.1 4.33
13 pyBanking 298.85 74 86 3.08 4.67 -7.11 4.03 34.22
14 pyChemicals 235.89 48 85 3.23 5.75 -11.58 2.81 46.14
15 pyComputerHardware 1825.94 432 79 2.5 5.35 -8.18 2.46 11.9
16 pyComputerSoftware 5378.91 1333 79 2.13 5.14 -8.86 2.18 6.09
17 pyConglomerates 0 0





18 pyConsumerDurables 789.88 196 77 1.98 5.27 -8.73 2.02 14.14
19 pyConsumerNonDurables 411.83 112 75 1.62 4.9 -8.23 1.79 14.73
110 pyDiversifiedServices 2194.29 522 77 2.19 5.44 -8.85 2.06 9.52
111 pyDrugs 6024.43 1418 79 2.03 5.38 -10.54 1.92 5.64
112 pyElectronics 4420.77 1123 78 2 5.06 -8.7 2.06 6.25
113 pyEnergy 1109.56 245 80 3 5.69 -7.5 3.03 18.75
114 pyFinancialServices 350.55 97 74 1.99 4.87 -6.29 2.2 19.9
115 pyFoodBeverage 194.33 47 79 2.41 5.25 -8.1 2.44 34.43
116 pyHealthServices 3606.47 863 78 2.23 5.37 -8.82 2.16 7.69
117 pyInsurance 360.69 104 65 0.79 5.3 -7.73 1.27 7.9
118 pyInternet 2702.58 622 79 2.22 5.48 -10.25 2.01 8.88
119 pyLeisure 513.61 125 75 1.81 5.46 -9.28 1.77 16.45
120 pyManufacturing 1344.04 307 80 2.6 5.49 -8.78 2.5 14.44
121 pyMaterialsConstruction 452.44 92 86 3.99 5.73 -6.54 5.38 39.9
122 pyMedia 694.87 174 72 1.53 5.56 -8.74 1.64 11.77
123 pyMetalsMining 396.86 94 78 2.75 5.44 -6.59 2.93 27.5
124 pyRealEstate 82.87 28 64 0.27 4.6 -7.53 1.09 5.4
125 pyRetail 566.23 130 78 2.4 5.61 -8.75 2.27 20
126 pySpecialtyRetail 632.62 145 74 2.56 5.86 -7.07 2.36 21.33
127 pyTelecommunications 3063.99 775 76 1.81 5.19 -8.99 1.83 6.7
128 pyTobacco 64.03 13 100 4.93 4.93

123.25
129 pyTransportation 204.06 55 71 1.63 5.23 -7.14 1.79 20.38
130 pyUtilities 138.81 26 92 5.09 5.78 -3.29 20.2 101.8
131 pyWholesale 845 224 76 1.96 4.94 -7.66 2.04 13.07



Funny, how it has taken many hours/weeks and brain-fried late nights in order to input, process, output into the simple little HTML table above. Reminds me of a story about the Y2K problem.

I was working around the clock for hours, weeks, and months on end in order to get our administrative systems ready for Y2K. For those few who don't remember...the Y2K issue centered around the fact that legacy systems used the 2 digit years instead of the 4 digits. And year calculations and comparisons drive a multitude of systems. So, if you compare the year 05 against 99...you get issues. Capisci?

Anyways, while I was burning the midnight oil getting everything in order...either converting everything to 4 digit years or windowing the problem...I got a call from a friend of mine.

Friend: "Hey, have you heard about this Y2K crap? Everybody is just making this Y2K stuff up, I tell ya. You watch...when January 1, 2000 gets here...nothing will happen."

Me: "You're right, nothing will happen because programmers like me have been working our butts off trying to make sure nothing will happen."

Friend: "Huh?"

Me: "Listen, it works like the George Soros Reflexivity theory. If all the programmers know there's a Y2K problem then the Y2K problem grows less of a problem as more of the problem is understood and worked on by those programmers. So, you are correct, when January 1, 2000 gets here...nothing will happen."

Friend: "Huh? Are you telling me Y2K is or isn't a problem."

Me: "Ah, Forget it. I gotta get back to work."

Friend: "Whatcha working on?"

Me: "The Y2K problem...[hangup]"

Six months later my friend calls me up on January 1, 2000 after I had stayed up all night to ensure our batch systems ran correctly and was still in the process of verifying their results.

Friend: "Hey, Happy New Year! I don't mean to rub it in...but I knew it, I knew it, I knew it! That Y2K was just a bunch of mumbo jumbo! Like I told you before...here it is Jan 1, 2000 and nothing...NADA...happened!"

Me: "Happy New Year yourself. And yes, there was a Y2K problem and we fixed it so nothing happened like I told you before!"

Friend: "Huh? Now, Mike, how can it be a problem if nothing happened!"

Me: "Ah, forget it...go watch your football games...I gotta get back to work"

Friend: "Work? Work? On New Year's Day? What the heck? What they got you working on now?"

Me: "Y2K...[hangup]"

Later Trades,

MT

Thursday, October 27, 2005

Serenity Now

Picture taken with my head out the car while driving through the beautiful Georgia Mountains.

MT

Wednesday, October 26, 2005

Coastline by Major Hurricane Strikes by State

Thought the graph above would better reflect which states receive the most hurricanes per coastline miles. As you can see this is quite different than the original graph showcasing states and their respective hurricanes hit. The prior graph showed Florida, Texas, and Louisiana being the top three. Those are now replaced by Mississippi, Alabama, and Rhode Island. Rhode Island? Say what? Okay, this chart is definitely more interesting than the last one.

Heck, according to this information...Louisiana is in the bottom 6. Also, interesting that Louisiana has more coastline than Texas.

MT

Hurricanes by State


StateHurricanes, originally uploaded by TaylorTree.

Working with the R project's barplot function and decided to play around with some hurricane data. The chart above reflects the number of hurricanes (major) making landfall by state. Nothing too surprising in the numbers.

The mean of the #of hurricanes by state is 22 while the median is 12. Which makes sense due to Florida being hit 5 times more than average. And Texas and Louisiana being hit more than 2 times the average.

MT

Monday, October 24, 2005

Rumor of reduced commissions at Interactive Brokers...

Rumor is that IB dropped commission rates for US Equities to $0.005/share all-inclusive. Read this thread from EliteTrader for more details on the rumor.

Not sure if this is true or not...but if so...might need to re-evaluate my broker choices. Hmm....

Later Trades,

MT

Sunday, October 23, 2005

Moneyball the Market

"Baseball - of all things - was an example of how an unscientific culture responds, or fails to respond, to the scientific method." -- Michael Lewis

The two sides are, on the one hand, the old scouts and, on the other, Billy Beane. The old scouts are like a Greek chorus, it is their job to underscore the eternal themes of baseball. The eternal themes are precisely what Billy Beane wants to exploit for profit - by ignoring them." -- Michael Lewis

"By analyzing baseball statistics you could see through a lot of baseball nonsense. For instance, when baseball managers talked about scoring runs, they tended to focus on team batting average, but if you ran the analysis you could see that the number of runs a team scored bore little relation to that team's batting average. It correlated much more exactly with a team's on-base and slugging percentages. A lot of the offensive tactics that made baseball managers famous - the bunt, the steal, the hit and run - could be proven to have been, in most situations, either pointless or self-defeating." -- Michael Lewis

"tinkering with the records of baseball games to see how the machinery of the baseball offense works. I do not start with the numbers any more than a mechanic starts with a monky wrench. I start with the game, with the things that I see there and the things that people say there. And I ask: Is it true? Can you validate it? Can you measure it? How does it fit with the rest of the machinery? And for those answers I go to the record books...What is remarkable to me is that I have so little company. Baseball keeps copious records, and people talk about them and argue about them and think about them a great deal. Why doesn't anybody use them? Why doesn't anybody say, in the face of this contention or that one, "Prove it"?" -- Bill James


These are some of my favorite quotes from the book, Moneyball by Michael Lewis. I especially like the Bill James quote basically asking why if we have the data and are asking the right questions...why oh why don't we use them in our strategies? Instead we focus on arguing our point with opinions. Enjoy reading books where the author makes the case to invest in stocks because Echo Boomers are an emerging powerful consumer and a host of other dynamics that can't be tested nor quantified on enough data points to matter.

This is why I like the recent Larry Connors book, How Markets Really Work. No opinions or pithy remarks. Connors instead focuses on Moneyballing the Market. Taking commonly held beliefs and turning them upside down and exposing them for what they truly are...eternal themes of the market sung by the Greek chorus of brokers, analysts, and media pundits.

Questions are asked and data is analyzed. And this analysis of data is what triggered this review. It changed the way I create, test, and design my systems. Before I would come up with an idea and immediately run a template system with my idea to expose the common statistics I look for...win%, avg gain, max drawdown, etc. From there I would begin filtering to improve and refine.

But, I really like the Connors method instead. He asks a question like is it true that new short-term highs are a sign of a healthy market? Then collects data on short-term highs and corresponding returns and short-term lows and corresponding returns into table form. Then he creates bar charts and equity curves of the comparison between the two to aid in visually analyzing the results of the study. I can see all kinds of possibilities with this method. It feels like more of your original edge is maintained instead of getting bogged down into filtering down the edge into the statistics you are trying to achieve. Plus, via the bar charts and equity curves you can really see whether the edge you think you have is true and robust against a benchmark and opposite view. One of the possibilities of this method is throwing in acrary's random trades from the Edge Test into the mix.

The downside of the book? I would enjoy more tests! More questions! It's just rare to find someone who asks and tests the questions you've been asking and answering yourself. Only other book like it that I've found is Altucher's Trade like a Hedge Fund book. I would have also enjoyed some discussion on how the questions asked relate to individual stocks within the general market.

Overall a book that can help in your pursuit of trading Jeet Kun Do. With that in mind, I'll leave you with this quote:

"True observation begins when one is devoid of set patterns." -- Bruce Lee

Side Note
What's happening to my Astros? It's the 8th inning and Astros are down by 2. The Sox pitchers seem to have the Astros ticket. Especially last night when we had just a good lineup at bat and the big wide one took em' down...one by one. Ah! The pain of being a Houston Astros fan. :)

C'mon Stros!

Later Trades,

MT