Thursday, January 11, 2007

Quote of the Week - (2007-01-11)

"You better know whatcha wanna to do, before somebody knows it for you." -- Charles Farmer in The Astronaut Farmer
Hope everyone is having a great week. Mine's been busy as ever. I hope to catch up on some reading over the weekend. Finish up the book, Trend Trading by Kedrick Brown. Dig in a bit more into the C language. Yes, I said C...the latin of programming languages.

I downloaded the MinGW compiler this week and wrote my first "Hello World" program in C. Then proceeded to open and read a CSV file. Whoa! Stop the bus! Not as simple as R, Ruby, Python, Pascal, and Cobol. Much to learn, much to learn.

Later Trades,

MT

Tuesday, January 02, 2007

Quote of the Week (2007-01-02)

Shlemiel gets a job as a street painter, painting the dotted lines down the middle of the road. On the first day he takes a can of paint out to the road and finishes 300 yards of the road. "That's pretty good!" says his boss, "you're a fast worker!" and pays him a kopeck.

The next day Shlemiel only gets 150 yards done. "Well, that's not nearly as good as yesterday, but you're still a fast worker. 150 yards is respectable," and pays him a kopeck.

The next day Shlemiel paints 30 yards of the road. "Only 30!" shouts his boss. "That's unacceptable! On the first day you did ten times that much work! What's going on?" "I can't help it," says Shlemiel. "Every day I get farther and farther away from the paint can!" -- Shlemiel the painter algorithm
Ran across this great interview of Joel Spolsky from Salon back in 2004. The dude has some great things to say...

In reference to the various software development methodologies:
There's certainly a lot of faux methodologies, what I often call "big-M" methodologies, extreme programming being a very popular one right now. And even when they're reflecting good ideas or best practices, the real goal of the methodologies is to sell books, not to actually solve anybody's problem. And selling the books is actually just a way to sell consulting engagements that the people who write those books do at high cost; that's their career -- giving speeches to people working for very boring companies on how to do software better.

In reference to creating software that will automatically translate a user's desire into code:
The fundamental problem that you're trying to solve here is that humans think of things in vague, mushy terms. In order to visualize something, they don't have to actually visualize every part of it. Whereas the programmer, in order to actually implement that thing, to create it, needs to have every part specified.

(continued...)

So your brain doesn't actually work the way a computer works. Your brain doesn't assume that there's all this input coming in and then process it. Instead, it just has a variety of senses available to it, and it picks the ones it wants to answer whatever questions it has right now. So you ask questions, and your eye goes and finds out the information it needs. So you're used to thinking that you have the big picture , and you don't.

(continued some more...)

And so what a programmer is doing when they translate a quote unquote spec into quote unquote code, although it seems like a translation process, what they're actually doing is filling in lots and lots of details. And as programmers are wont to do, they're trying to take something, the vague thing that the humans want, and make it very, very specific, which is the kind of thing the computer wants. That's not really a translation; it's more of an interpretation. It's a very hard thing to do.
Read Joel's Back to Basics post for more interesting tidbits on Shlemiel the painter algorithm, Pascal strings, and my favorite...XML performance issues. I've developed and supported EDI transaction processing for over 9 years and witnessed first hand the problems Joel discusses with XML. Great stuff!

Happy New Year!

MT

Sunday, December 24, 2006

Happy Holidays!

Twas the night before Christmas, when all through the house
Not a creature was stirring, well, except for TaylorTree.

I wish you and your family a wonderful Holiday Season!

MT



Sunday, December 17, 2006

Quote of the Week - Know Thyself

Boy: "Do not try and bend the spoon. It is impossible. Instead, only try to realize the truth."

Neo: "What truth?"

Boy: "There is no spoon."

Neo: "There is no spoon?"

Boy: "Then you'll see that it is not the spoon that bends...it is only yourself."

-- from the Matrix (one of my all-time favorite movies)

Hope all is well. I'm as busy as a bee...buzz, buzz, buzz.

Later Trades,

MT

Wednesday, December 06, 2006

Thread of the Week - Stock Distributions

Eric Crittenden shared an interesting study of stock distributions over at the Trading Blox Forum.

How many of you look at the Annual Compounded Returns graph and immediately think...man, I gotta get me some of those 3,000 plus 10% to 20% returns! If I can just find an edge, a better indicator, profit targets, something to capture them. Work it like a Casino, baby!

How many view the graph and have the 344 100% or more returns catch your eye? Or better yet...stare in amazement at the Terminal Wealth Relative graph and its 2,000 plus returns of 500% or more. Count me in that camp.

This study really confirms what the market is all about. Unlimited gains and limited losses. If you time the market or cap your profits in order to capture and/or protect those small gains...you'll...as Eric says...
"virtually guarantee to participate fully in the left side of the distribution and not in a positive way."

Really after giving this study more thought...it seems after you set yourself up for success via capturing the right side of the distribution...it is then just a matter of managing risk. Right? And not from the sense of your initial risk in the stock via volatility based position sizing. But, from maintaining a certain risk profile throughout the entirety of the trade. As these positions move further in your favor...I would assume their risk profiles could differ greatly from the original risk set forth.

Again, interesting study. Thanks Eric!

Later Trades,

MT

Monday, December 04, 2006

Quote of the Week

Caston glared. "Observation selection effects are totally commonplace. At the supermarket, have you ever noticed how often you find yourself in the longer checkout lane? Why is that? Because those are the lines with the most people in them. Let's say I told you that Mr. Smith, about whom you knew nothing at all, was standing in one of those checkout lines, and you had to predict which one, based only on knowing how many people were in each line."

"There'd be no way to know."

"But inference is about probabilities. And the most probable outcome, obviously, is that he's in the line with the most people in it." Once you step back and consider yourself from an outsider's perspective, it becomes self-evident. The slowest traffic lane is the one with the most cars in it. The laws of probability say that any given driver is most likely to be in that lane. That means you. It's not bad luck or delusion that makes you think the other lanes of traffic are going faster. More often than not, they are going faster."
Great quote from a great book, The Ambler Warning by Robert Ludlum.



If you haven't read it...you should.

The book, while not about investing or the market, contains two fictional characters who fit well with characters in the investment world. One of the characters lives by gut feel alone. Instinct. The other...100% logic, statistics, probabilities, just the facts ma'm. Interesting to see the development of these characters and how they find common ground.

Later Trades,

MT

Friday, December 01, 2006

First Snow!


Received our first Snow of the year and it is wonderful! For a Texas boy who has never been around snow before...I feel like a kid at Christmas. Fun stuff.

MT

Friday, November 24, 2006

Aquamarine Fund Diary, Buffett, and Owning a Business

You can tell from the volatility breakout in my blog posts...that I have some time on my hands.  :)

Found some great posts by the Aquamarine Fund Diary.  Here's a post on Warren Buffett and the Chicago Graduate School of Business - trip to Omaha.  I really liked the following bullets:
  • Associate with people who are better than you. Marry up, employ up,
    work for your heroes. Associations rub off. Tell me your heroes, I’ll
    tell you how you’ll turn out. People in the room (us) have IQ, energy,
    and smarts to burn. No bad results will be due to deficiencies in this
    area.
  • Take one hour. Think of the one classmate who you’d like to own 10%
    of for the rest of their life. 10% of all of their future income. What
    do you think about? The person who others admire and want to work with.
    Person who works hard and gives others credit. It’s simple. Select
    those qualities for yourself.
  • "Now the fun part” who would you want to short? The guy who turns other people off.
I also liked this interview of Tom Murphy in The Wisdom of Tom Murphy.  In the full interview Murphy  encourages
"people, particularly those who are young but also experienced enough to know what's going on, to try starting a business because the rewards of being your own boss are wonderful."
Okay, readers...if you own your own business...give up the goods on how you came to the realization you wanted to run a business instead of working for whatever company you were working for.  Why did you feel the risk was worth taking?  And what business did you choose...something you were familiar with?  Something new?

And for those working for others...if you have thoughts of running a business someday...what type of business would you like to run?  And why?

MT

Thursday, November 23, 2006

Quote of the Week - We're Just Ants!

"If you study an ant colony, you will find it has a life cycle — it’s robust, it’s adaptive. However, if you ask any individual ant what’s going on, they have no clue. They’re working with local information and local interaction. I think there’s a very clear parallel to markets. How do markets get to be efficient? The answer is it’s an interaction among a lot of diverse investors. The aggregation mechanism to bring the information together is the stock exchange, and then what emerges from that is the stock market.

The important takeaway is it’s impossible to understand the market by interviewing individual investors because each investor only has a partial piece of the picture. It’s the aggregation that allows the full picture to emerge. What the ant colonies teach us is that in markets, cause and effect are very difficult to pin down. Sometimes we like to think that the experts on TV or the pundits quoted in the Wall Street Journal know what’s going on. They’re really just ants." -- Michael Mauboussin
The above quote comes from Mauboussin's article, "Guppies, ants, and golf swings: Mental models for investors." This quote really defines the methodology I have adopted in trading. Forget how you feel about the stock. It doesn't matter. Forget how you feel about the market...it doesn't matter. Who cares if we're in a housing bubble, USD is going lower, inflation, deflation, yakkity-yak...don't come back. The only thing that matters is what the market thinks.

The market is really just a glorified voting system. You may believe Google, Starbucks or Milli Vanilli is road kill. But, if the vast majority of participants believe it's the next best thing...then it is. I know, I know...you know better....but you're just one vote...amongst millions of voters. Know matter how strongly you feel about something...it's just a drop in the bucket.

So, why fight it? I ask's ya's!?! Just go with it. Embrace your inner ant.


MT

Happy Thanksgiving!!!

Just want to wish everyone a Safe and Happy Thanksgiving!  This will be our first Thanksgiving in Missouri and we're really looking forward to it.  Plus, it will be our son's first Thanksgiving.

The best part is I have 4 full days of complete rest ahead of me.  Definitely time for catching a movie or two.  And many other things I've put off for far too long.

I leave you with a rather interesting thread over at the Trading Blox Forum on Pre-emptive money management.  Provides food for thought on volatility based position sizing.  Is volatility predictable?  If so, should we adjust our position size to anticipated changes in volatilty?  Since our current position size is based on historical volatility.

This also begs the question as to the use of historical volatility in position sizing.  Is past volatility a good measure of future volatility?  Should we use a shorter time frame for measurement?  Or longer?  Or weight the average?  Seasonality may be a poor choice to predict changes in price but what about changes in volatility?

Is all this getting way to complicated?  Would we instead be better off just randomly choosing a number?  And one more question...when do your best returns occur?  During periods of high volatility?  Or low?  How about your worst returns?

As always, something to explore.

Later Trades,

MT

Wednesday, November 15, 2006

Quote of the Week

"There's a great story about a famous local trader at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT).  One day, he was on the floor of the CBOT and a U.S. inflation number came out that was totally unexpected.  Pure pandemonium ensued.  When all the noise died down, he walked out of the pit having made $10 million and said, "By the way, what was the number?" -- humorous story shared by Dr. John Porter in the book, Inside the House of Money
It's official...the new trading system is in production.  A week earlier than the deadline.  Much of the work was done in R.  In fact, a few times in the project, I just don't know what I'd do without the fantastic little language.  Python and Ruby was used as well.  Along with Wealth-Lab.

That's it from my part of the world...where I'm eagerly anticipating my first Missouri snowfall. 

And enjoying the cool vlog, WallStrip.  It's the first stock market show I've seen where the highlighted stocks are chosen from a valid investing concept.  Who'd a thunk it?  Smart!

Later Trades,

MT

Monday, November 06, 2006

Quote of the Week

"Implied volatility is based on historical volatility, but who cares about historicals? They're irrelevant. The point is, things can happen for the first time that aren't in your distribution so they can't be priced. If it's never happened before, how can you hedge yourself? The only way to hedge the unknown is to cut off tail risk completely." -- Jim Leitner from the interview in Inside the House of Money

MT

Sunday, October 29, 2006

Quote of the Week

"All these years I had been sustained by an illusion - happiness through victory - and now that illusion was blurred to ashes. I was no happier, no more fulfilled, for all my achievements.

Finally I saw through the clouds. I saw that I had never learned how to enjoy life, only how to achieve. All my life I had been busy seeking happiness, not finding it." -- Dan Millman's character in the Way of the Peaceful Warrior.

MT

Thursday, October 19, 2006

Quote of the Week

"In times of change, learners inherit the Earth, while the learned find themselves beautifully equipped to deal with a world that no longer exists." -- Eric Hoffer
Sorry everyone for the lack of posts or response to emails.  I'm trying to meet a November 1st deadline for a new trading system.  And between that and the entire family being sick from a nasty little cold bug...well I haven't been up for much else.

I do appreciate your patience...and hope to get back to the normal routine soon.  In fact, once I push this trading system to production...I plan on taking a nice long break from the trading system turret.  Catch a few breaths before my next run.  Ha ha!

Until then, hop on over to the StockTickr Blog and read Jon Tait's interview.  One of the best interviews yet from StockTickr.  Jon's a smart cookie and shares some great insights into system trading and market behavior.

Later Trades,

MT

Tuesday, October 03, 2006

Quote of the Week

"Many questions are unanswerable.  Many answers are questionable."  -- from a fortune cookie
Wow, the above quote is so true.  I have dug a little deeper into everything I have worked on the past several years.  Calling into question my beliefs and attitudes towards the market.  I was so wrong.  It all started from a seed that Eric Crittenden planted into my head.  "Sounds like an exercise in curve-fitting", he said, in reference to one of my system ideas.

Then a friend introduced me to the concept of focusing on what you don't like to do and casting it aside in order to free yourself for the things you do like to do.  The butterfly began to flutter...
"It has been said something as small as the flutter of a butterfly's wing can ultimately cause a typhoon halfway around the world." - Chaos Theory
Next, I watched the recent show on Sabermetrics where they discussed Bill James and many of the very cool things brought out in Moneyball.  Flutter, flutter.

Finally, my recent foray into the hazards and pennywinks of developing a trading platform has brought out a very interesting focus to my trading.  What would I like in a platform?  What am I really trying to test?  How is a certain test helpful to my bottom-line?

And all that has helped me to understand what I've been missing.  I've been focusing on the wrong thing!  So much of my time was spent on my next trade.  Kinda like in Sabermetrics where they found too much focus was on RBI's or Homeruns.  Bill James found Outs was where the focus should be. 

And I think in trading...the focus should be on the only fixed rule that I know exists:  If you don't use margin...your losses are limited to 100%.  But, as long you don't cap your profits in any major way...your gains are infinite.  With that in mind, where should your focus be?  And what kind of formulas and tools can we use to measure this new focus?  For example, the smoothness the Sharpe Ratio tries to show becomes something of a throw-away...a tool/formula used to measure the wrong focus in your trading.  Don't understand?  Maybe this will help.  Or maybe not:
http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/0603_coverstory.pdf

Later Trades,

MT

Friday, September 22, 2006

Quote of the Week - Kaizen

"The most important choice you make is what you choose to make important" -- Michael Neill
I had coffee with a friend today that brought up an interesting topic. He said, instead of thinking about all the things you like to do or would like to do and persuing them. Step back a moment and think about all the things you do not like to do...and stop doing them. A lot to chew on for yours truly.

First off, because it is very hard for me to think about what I don't like to do. Perhaps because I've spent so much time and effort in determining what I like to do? Or maybe I don't like to admit there are things I don't like to do?

Reminds me of Kaizen. Eliminating activities that add cost and do not add value in an effort to continuously improve. We could all use that, right?

So, here I am thinking about what I don't like about investing/trading.
1) I don't like nothingness. I don't mind drawdowns...at least something is happening. And of course, I love when I'm reaching new equity highs. But, I absolutely abhor nothingness. That period of time when your investments just sit there and do nothing. I don't like that. Which is a bad thing...since most of an investor's time is spent in nothingness.

2) I don't like gut feel investments. I want a precise method to follow that lets me know exactly when to buy and when to sell. Thus, the reason for developing trading systems.

3) I don't enjoy buying and selling stocks. I enjoy researching trading ideas and building systems around those ideas. But, the actual buying and selling of stocks is not fun for me. Would enjoy things much better if someone else traded my systems, so to speak.
That's about it as far as my dislikes. Not too bad. One day I need to write what I like about investing/trading.

Trading Platform Update:
I've made lots of progress on the trading platform front. But, so much still to go. I'm spending equal time in Python and Ruby in this quest. My major roadblock right now is obtaining the most efficient way to process historical stock data against portfolio data.

Most trading platforms process a symbol at a time. But, doing that prevents you from ranking all stocks triggered for a given day along with the currently held stocks and choosing the top 10, 20, etc. Because you'd have to read all symbols and all dates in order to get at a certain date for all symbols.

So, I'm trying date processing instead. Spin through all the symbols for a given date instead of all dates for a given symbol. Doing this would enable me to rank, adjust, etc. prior to the next day of trade. But, going this route scares me due to performance issues. Maybe it won't be so bad. We will see.

If anyone has ideas on this subject, please send my way. The main goal of the project is to avoid memory intensive methods. The reason? The trading systems I work with consists of all stocks in the US Markets going back 20 years or so. It crashes Wealth-Lab due to its memory method of position sizing despite 2GB of memory. I could buy more memory, but that would be too easy. :-)

Later Trades,

MT

Friday, September 08, 2006

Quote of the Week - Dilbert?

"I'm a great student of successful people, and usually at some point in their careers, they've had to take a huge risk. That used to cause a dull ache in my stomach. I still get it, but now I ignore it." -- Scott Adams, creator of Dilbert
MT

Fall Movies

Wow, there is nothing like Fall movie lineups to get you going.  And this season looks to be a good one.  Here's just a few of the movies that caught my eye and will likely see...

We Are Marshall & Facing the Giants - Nothing like football movies in the Fall.

A Guide to Recognizing Your Saints - Returning home again?

The Departed - Good Cop?  Bad Cop?

Fearless - Jet Li...Martial Arts...need I say more?

Enjoy the weekend!

MT

Wednesday, September 06, 2006

Quote of the Week - Mindsets

"Often when you mention risk, what people think of is the downside. Danger. That's not the entrepreneurial mind-set," she said. "The entrepreneurial mind-set is that risk is the heightened probability that there is a big range of possible outcomes." -- Heidi Roizen

The above quote is from Money.com's recent series on What it takes to be rich. I love the story describing growth mindsets versus fixed mindsets.
Dweck, the psychologist who studies growth mind-sets, created an experiment to demonstrate how persistence and the pursuit of knowledge leads to success. She posed a series of trivia questions to a group of people with fixed mind-sets and another with growth mind-sets.

After each answer, one and a half seconds passed before the participants were told whether they were right or wrong, and, if they were wrong, another one and a half seconds lapsed before they were given the correct response. Their brains were monitored with electrodes the entire time.

Dweck found that the people with fixed mind-sets cared a lot about whether they were right or wrong but not at all about what the right answer was. The growth-mind-set participants stayed interested until the correct answer was given, showing an interest in learning new information rather than in simply validating their intelligence.
more from Carol Dweck...
People with fixed mind-sets believe that they were born with a certain amount of intelligence, and they strive to convince the world of their brilliance so that no one finds out they're not actually geniuses.

Growth-mind-set people believe that intelligence, knowledge and skill need to be "cultivated" by trial and error. Failing at something, they believe, is the best way to ensure they'll succeed at it the next time.
This growth mindset versus fixed mindset sounds so interesting...I just might have to go out and read her new book:


Follow along with the Money.com's series here...
Lesson 1: Make your own luck
Lesson 1, Corollary 1: Building 'social capital' often pays off in the end.
Lesson 2: Failing at something is the best way to ensure success at it the next time.
Lesson 2, Corollary 1: Successful people are always on the look out for new experiences that they can later build on.
Lesson 2, Corollary 2: If you see an opportunity, take it. But that doesn't mean betting the ranch.

Later Trades,

MT

Tuesday, August 29, 2006

Quote of the Week - I Love Ruby!

"It is not the responsibility of the language to force good looking code, but the language should make good looking code possible." -- Yukihiro Matsumoto
I just discovered the power of Ruby!!!

More later,

MT