What A Day!

"Don't try to buy at the bottom and sell at the top. It can't be done except by liars." -- Bernard Baruch
Wow! What a day. We got the presidential pop in the market. Now, we wait and see what happens next. If this is indeed the mid-term top...man, are we fixing to see a fight. The bulls are plenty and out in force. I haven't seen this level of speculation in a very long time. So, if a top is in...expect the next few days for the market to do everything in its power to reach and then break this morning's high.



As you can see, the market popped this morning and then spent the rest of the day selling off. I got my opportunity to short some more at the opening. Was it a tough short? Yes. Even tougher to read article after article discussing the bullishness of the market and this economy. My next moves are the following:

1. If the market can exceed today's high over the next few days then I'll be forced to close my short positions and rethink my strategies. In fact, I'll probably stick to what I do best...system trading.


2. If the market cannot exceed today's high and begins breaking down...I'll probably place my final short on the market. Or I might perform some searches for individual stocks to short.

Here's a quick update on how my daily systems are doing (of course I'm out of these):

• 1 QQQ system sold at the open this morning for a 2.94% profit.
• 3 QQQ systems are still open with a current profit of 1.99%.
• 1 QQQ system is still open and up 1.35%.
• The MCD stock system is still open and up 2.30%.
• The CVT stock system is still open and down -2.36%.

So, in hindsight...it looks like staying with my systems would have been the smarter choice. I'll continue to monitor the systems and update the site with the results.

The next few days are going to prove very interesting.

Later trades.

Movie Madness

Yes, I'm still short the market. Yes, I shorted more at the opening. Yes, my gut is wrenching.

To keep my mind off the market today, I checked out some upcoming movies that look promising. Release Dates and summaries provided by Yahoo!.

White Noise - Release Date: 01/07/2005
Michael Keaton plays successful architect Jonathan Rivers, whose peaceful existence is shattered by the unexplained disappearance and death of his wife, Anna (Chandra West). Jonathan is eventually contacted by a man (Ian McNeice), who claims to be receiving messages from Anna through EVP (Electronic Voice Phenomenon), the process through which the dead communicate with the living through household recording devices. At first skeptical, Jonathan then becomes convinced of the messages' validity, and is soon obsessed with trying to contact her on his own. His further explorations into EVP and the accompanying supernatural messages unwittingly open a door to another world, allowing something uninvited into his life.

In Good Company - Release Date: 12/29/2004
Dan Foreman (Dennis Quaid) is headed for a shakeup. He is demoted from head of ad sales for a major magazine when the company he works for is acquired in a corporate takeover. His new boss, Carter Duryea (played by Topher Grace) is half his age--a business school prodigy who preaches corporate synergy. While Dan develops clients through handshake deals and relationships, Carter cross-promotes the magazine with the cell phone division and "Krispity Krunch," an indeterminate snack food under the same corporate umbrella. Both men are going through turmoil at home. Dan has two daughters--Alex, age 18, and Jana, age 16--and is shocked when his wife tells him she's pregnant with a new child. Between college tuition, the mortgage and a new baby, Dan can't afford to lose his job in the wave of corporate layoffs. Carter, in the meanwhile, is dumped by his wife of seven months just as he gets his promotion. Dan and Carter's uneasy friendship is thrown into jeopardy when Carter falls for, and begins an affair with, Dan's daughter Alex (Scarlett Johansson).

The Assasination of Richard Nixon - Release Date: 12/29/2004
Based on real life events, "Assassination" is set in 1974 and centers on a businessman (Penn) who decides to take extreme measures to achieve his American dream.

Blade: Trinity - Release Date: 12/08/2004
For years, Blade has fought against the vampires in the cover of night, with the world above unaware of the brutal ongoing war. But now, after falling into the crosshairs of the FBI, he is forced out into the daylight where he is driven to join forces with a clan of human vampire hunters he never knew existed - The Nightstalkers. Together with Abigail (Jessica Biel) and Hannibal (Ryan Reynolds), two deftly trained Nightstalkers, Blade follows a trail of blood to an ancient creature that is hunting him...the original vampire, Dracula.

Ocean's Twelve - Release Date: 12/10/2004
Danny Ocean (Clooney), reignited flame Tess (Roberts) and the rest of a band of thieves and con men (some returning and some new), team up for another three huge heists, but this time they're in three different locations - Rome, Paris and Amsterdam. In Amsterdam, the prize is Rembrandt's "De Nachtwacht" painting, which resides at the Rijksmuseum. Meanwhile, casino owner Terry Benedict (Garcia), whom Ocean and crew ripped off in Las Vegas, is hot on their tail, looking for revenge.

I'm especially pumped by the upcoming release of Ocean's Twelve. The first one, Ocean's Eleven, is one of my favorite movies. Hopefully, Twelve does not disappoint. If you like Ocean's Eleven...you should try renting The Italian Job. The Italian Job has the same type of assembling of crew and heist plot as Eleven...but with a bit of goofiness added in.

One more note. We're finally enjoying some cooler weather here in Texas. I have to say, it's about time! This is my favorite time of year. Tis' the season for chili!

Later Trades.

Short the Market!

My move to short the market will either look prescient or stupid. And the market will soon be the judge. I did sell my final position mid-morning today, McDonald's. Gain? Just a little over 3.00% on that trade. Being completely out of the market left me flush with cash for my next investment opportunity.

I waited patiently all day today for just the right trigger. I wanted to see a range expansion to the downside breaking the strong uptrend in place all day today. My moment finally came late in the trading day. And I sold short the QQQ as fast as I could.



After my initial trade was safely in the green...I waited and watched for signs of some consolidation to initiate another short on the stock with just minutes to spare before close.

I'm expecting the market to open up Wednesday and that's where I would like to initiate my final short on this stock.

This has been one very tough trade. Just thinking through all the crosscurrents of the market this week have been taxing on my mind. It's almost a relief to finally have this trade underway. If it goes my way...great. If not...a lesson learned.

Once again, I'll give you my quick ditty on why I sold everything and went short.

• Good news was priced in. Everyone was touting an expected rally once the election was over. The old axiom...sell hope and buy fear never felt more applicable.

• Long-term interest rates have fallen for months giving the market a quiet underlying strength. But, long-term rates are now hitting against the bottom of their downtrend channel. Most of my positions were in financials...particularly regional banks. I feared that any bump up in rates were sure to put a drag on these stocks.

• The market's ignoring high oil prices and focusing on the presidential election instead. After the election, oil prices will still be high and I'm afraid their effects on the economy just beginning.
  

• The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite were bumping against the upper portion of their downtrend channel. I'm a big believer in trend trading. Going with the trend is usually half the battle. Then pick your entry correctly to give you the confidence to weather any short-term volatility against that trend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite were bumping against the upper portion of their downtrend channel. In fact, I believe the Nasdaq Composite hit a new 84 day high. This seemed like a good place to gain entry into the mid-term downtrend.

In addition to all these factors...the thing that gives me the most confidence in my view and my trade is simply a quote...

Usually when making investments, it is implicit that investors believe they have some degree of knowledge about the future. So Wall Street has more fortune tellers than any other industry. I feel I've had an advantage over the years because I am clear about a couple of things: 1) it is part of the nature of life itself (and markets are simply manifestations of people's expectations) to trend, and 2) I will never have a complete or full understanding of anything. Therefore, all investment decisions should be based on what can be measured rather than what might be predicted or felt. -- John Henry, famous commodities trader and Boston Red Sox owner

As I'm ending this post...the presidential election is still very close. It looks that momentum is with President Bush. If so, tomorrow could see a nice little pop to the upside. Looks like more work and gut wrenching is still ahead of me.

Have a good night!

Rogers Interview

I'm heading home...but had to post the link to this great interview of market wizard, Jim Rogers. Thanks to the Commodity Trader for posting this interview.

Read article here.

I agree with Rogers on several points in the interview. Most importantly that oil will see much higher prices in the coming years. Although a pullback is needed from current levels.

Also pay note to what he says about utilities. And check out a few of the utility stocks and their corresponding stock charts...like TXU and Southern. I think an investment paradigm is in the making here. These stocks are moving into a different asset category. Moving from the old measure of dividend yields to the new one...the unthinkable for utilities...growth rates.

Dynegy's recent buying spree in this field is just a sign of things to come. Of course, these stocks are all due for a much needed pullback. But, pay attention to this sector. It could get interesting.

Random Links

"The public have an insatiable curiosity to know everything. Except what is worth knowing. Journalism, conscious of this, and having tradesman-like habits, supplies their demands." -- Oscar Wilde

Some Random Links to fill your trading day.

Excellent article by WallStreetWindow's Michael Swanson on the media's spin on investing and politics. I totally agree with the bullishness show producers force upon guests of the TV and Radio shows. I had the same thing happen to me when asked to be a guest for a popular investment radio show back in May of 2000. I wanted to talk about some of the stocks that were going to get cut in half...but the producers only wanted long picks. Really opened my eyes to what the media is about. Read on...

I'm not a fan of Robert Prechter. I view someone like him as a broken clock. Always telling the same time. The clock is worthless...yet everyday it reports the correct time...twice. But, this article has a few gems that Prechter doesn't even know he released. Read on...

Have a great election day!

The Market Sirens and Elections

I've sold my positions. Almost all of them. The only remaining position I have is McDonalds (MCD) with a 3.25% gain. I've sold the QQQ positions even though 4 of the systems currently have a .98% gain and one has a .35% gain. I even received a trading system trigger on CVT yesterday that I did not pull at the open today. That position would have been down -0.98% at the close.

I know I did a bad thing. In order to trade your systems you must remove all emotions. You must follow them rigidly. Most of my positions I've held for over 2 1/2 years. All of them were sold at the end of trading today. I've weathered many storms with those positions. But, I'm seeing things differently now. Maybe what I see is short-term in nature. I just don't think so.

It just feels like a strong top is or has taken place. The market sirens are singing their song...and I was almost lured to that island of Anthemoessa. I'm not sure what caused me to awake from their beautiful singing filled with GOOG like returns for many months to come. Where almost any breakout from congestion quickly garnishes several percentage points. Heck, some have even called those breakouts lottery tickets because of the huge moves accorded. Whatever shook me by my shoulders and melted wax into my ears...I'm grateful. At least for now.

Now that you know where I stand...let me show you some research you might find interesting. I researched the Dow Jones Industrials in respect to election years. Particulary, the time period from the end of October thru the end of December of the same year. I wanted to know what type of returns to expect from this very short period in time when the president is chosen thru the end of that election year. These results are based on election years 1916 - 2000.

The Dow Jones Industrials were up or breakeven 68% of the time and down 32% of the time. During those up or breakeven times...the DJ-30 eaked out an average gain of 5.63%. And during those down times the DJ-30 shed an average 5.44%.

Not bad, huh?

To go a step further, I reviewed the S&P 500. These results are based on the election years of 1964 - 2000.

S&P 500 was up or breakeven 70% of the time and of course down 30% of the time. The average move experienced during up or breakeven times was 3.85%. While the average loss during down times was -2.74%.

Very similar to the DJ-30 scenario.

I'm sure after seeing these numbers you're thinking I'm crazy for selling all my positions. You can't argue with the numbers. I mean we have at least a 68% chance of experiencing an average positive return of 5% or greater from now til' the end of December. And there's further research that agrees with this bullish scenario.

There's the Fed Model that suggests stocks are 37% cheaper than treasuries. Read on...

You also have the built in seasonality factor of November thru April where this period has outperformed the May thru October timeframe 70% of the time. Read on...

Despite all this great news, why am I bearish? And why if I'm a system trader would I give up all my hard-earned years of research for a hunch? I'll answer that in one word...EDGE.

I create systems to capture an edge in the market. The only way I make money is to find some edge or inefficiency to exploit. What happens when the edge I rely on is known by many participants? Does the edge vanish? I believe so. That's why I cashed out. I cashed out because the edge I was trading was gone. And there's another edge available to trade. I believe this new edge is rested on the fact that so many traders and hedge fund managers are leaning the same way. They are all using the same research and trading the same edge. They all know this bullish news. And they have been positioning themselves for this bullish news for the past few weeks.

What will happen when the market sirens stop singing? The answer to that question is the edge I'm looking to exploit.

Until then...

Random Links

"You make money on wall street by being very selective and being patient, waiting for those opportunities that are irresistible, where the percentages are very heavily in your favor." -- Seth Glickenhaus

Random Links to keep you procrastinating about the work you really need to get done.

Jerry Grantham is on a tear. Believes we'll see a big drop immediately following the presidential election. Read on...

The top 100 TiVo Season Passes. Two of my favorites are on the top 10...The Apprentice and Survivor. I'm a little surprised by Joey coming in at number 6. I loved Joey in Friends...but just couldn't get into the Joey series. Am I wrong here? Read on...

Interesting story on Columbian coca farmers and how they outsmarted Clinton's Plan Columbia, an anti-narcotics package that supplements the Columbian government with crop dusters and the herbicide Roundup. The original intent was to spray drug crops and stop the cocaine export before it ever started. Now, it looks like the US government is spraying weedkillers on Columbian drug crops for free. Not a bad deal for Columbian farmers. Read on...

Interest chart and analysis of presidential elections from The Big Picture blog. Read on...

Enjoy!

Election and Market Sectors

Interesting study of sector movements and the Bush election contracts. To summarize, the author found:

Natural Resources and Utilities to do well when Bush's contract fell.

Healthcare performed well when Bush's contract rose.

Read on...

Second Guessing Your System

System trading can be difficult. I'm at all-time equity highs with my trading accounts. My systems have performed extremely well during the month of October. But, sometimes you get torn between your personal feelings about the market and your systems direction.

I've read many blogs expecting a post-election rally. Then on Bulls & Bears I noticed every person on the show from Gary B. Smith to Tobin Smith are expecting a post-election rally. This concerns me greatly. Because you know what? I'm expecting a post-election rally too. What happens when everyone leans to one-side? The other side is the place where money is made.

Normally the market is forward looking. But, every so often the market condenses the length of its viewpoint. Instead of looking 6 to 9 months ahead...a single event draws the market's attention...distracting everyone away from the big picture. I'm afraid that's what is happening now. All market participants are focusing on the Presidential Election...and that's it. Every since I noticed that everyone was leaning to one side...I've been asking myself, "What will market participants have to look forward to after the election?"

I've searched my brain all weekend for the answer to that question. And I keep coming back to oil prices. I'm afraid once the election is over...the fog will clear and everyone will then see the real effects of high oil prices. Earnings will be effected. Period. Consumer spending will be effected. Period. There's no denying this. Whoever is elected President cannot change what has already happened. High oil prices have effected our economy. In the next few days investors will again turn their attention to this matter.

Of course, this goes completely against what my systems are trading. Heck, I have 5 systems long the QQQ right now. All expect a minimum of a 5% up move in the QQQ. Only .60% move has occurred since the systems have been triggered. So, we still have a ways to go system wise.

Due to the confusion of my hunch and my systems I reviewed the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and DJ-30 charts. I wanted to see where they were trading in relation to their trendlines. You'll see in the following 3 charts that 2 of the 3 are hitting the top of their downtrend channels.





After reviewing these charts, the chances for a mid-term rally after this election look bleak. In fact, analyzing the charts did nothing but confirm my hunch that we're in a top in the market...loaded with many players on the wrong side.

I'll be the first to admit...my strength is my systems. I'm a good trading system developer. In fact, 98% of my equity performance over the past 3 years have come from my systems. My trading instincts do not perform as well. So, my initial impression is to keep my systems going and let them do their job. But, it sure smells like a nice little opportunity to cash out near the top of my equity curve, short the market, and buyback my systems at a much better price. Of course, many system traders have fallen prey to this exact syndrome of second guessing. Can I stay strong? Or do I know better than my systems? Looks like I'll find out in the next few days.

Until then...

Friday's Update

Today's a pretty tight range day. Market's afraid to move one way or the other for too long. I'm sure the upcoming election has something to do with it. So, be careful out there. Once this election pressure is removed...the market is sure to surge. Question is...which way?

Here's some random news links to keep you occupied and away from the market today:

A black swan event? Hobbits are real? Read on...

Canaries smarter than humans? Who woulda thunk it? Read on...

Investing in waves? Adam Hamilton from ZealLLC.com does a great job in showcasing how the market moves in waves.

Think how lucky the people were who entered their main investing years back in 1982 and basically just hung on for the ride. I'm afraid our generation will not be that fortunate. Read on... or click on the graph above.

Jim Rogers interview. Looks like he's a strong believer in the future of China and that we're in a secular bull market for commodities. And he's writing a new book to prove it, Hot Commodities.

And finally, Happy Birthday Dad. You were born just two years before Black Tuesday, the day the Dow Jones shed 11.73% and the mark of the Great Depression. What an interesting and hard time you grew up in. Amazing the changes that have transpired. To think you grew up in a time before television and are now reading this on the Internet via DSL. Boggles the mind.

Happy Halloween everyone. And to my cousin Mysti and her new husband Chip...I wish ya'll all the best!

Another QQQ Trigger

A new QQQ system trigger was issued for Friday's market open. A little disconcerting because this has not happened to my systems before. Very odd to receive 5 seperate system triggers for the same security within two days.

I think it's safe to say these 5 systems are now up for review. Need to identify the differences between systems and verify whether they are still valid. I'll let you know the outcome.

Now, on to the good news. The QQQ is up .76% from today's open. So, those 4 systems are currently profitable and still long the QQQ. The new system will enter at tomorrow's open and has a backtested win percentage of 83%.

So, here's to a good trading day for Friday. It has to be good...because Friday is my Dad's birthday. Happy Birthday Dad!!!

Playing Moneyball?

Usually when making investments, it is implicit that investors believe they have some degree of knowledge about the future. So Wall Street has more fortune tellers than any other industry. I feel I've had an advantage over the years because I am clear about a couple of things: 1) it is part of the nature of life itself (and markets are simply manifestations of people's expectations) to trend, and 2) I will never have a complete or full understanding of anything. Therefore, all investment decisions should be based on what can be measured rather than what might be predicted or felt. -- John Henry, famous commodities trader and Boston Red Sox owner

One of the difficulties in trading system development is idea generation. I have several notebooks around the house, the car, and the office so when an idea for a new system hits...I'm ready. And then you have the problem that when the ideas start coming...you can't write them down fast enough. This can go on for weeks. And then you crash. You hit a dead end.

I guess, it's a lot like writer's block. You're completely out of ideas and you don't think you'll ever have another good idea again. But, then get recharged from the strangest things.

After the movie last night I stopped by the local bookstore and picked up Moneyball by Michael Lewis. I read just a few chapters and I can already tell it's a classic. A book that every system trader should have in their investment library.

The story of Billy Beane and the Oakland A's is amazing. And the field of Sabermetrics is pretty cool. The story is a great idea generator for system traders. It makes you feel great about what you do. And gets you excited about finding more systems out there in the market.

On a special note: Bill James is the founder of Sabermetrics. For years he received little or no respect in the field of baseball. With the record of Billy Beane's Oakland A's and the Moneyball book...that respect slowly came. In 2003, Bill James was hired by the great commodity trend follower and Boston Red Sox owner, John Henry. The rest as they say is History.

Congrats Red Sox on your historical World Series win!!!

The Scary Grudge

I saw one scary a*s movie last night. The Grudge. Man, that was scary. It's a bit different because it was filmed in Japan. A Japanese story. Japanese director. I belive Spiderman's Sam Raimi was the producer.

Scary? You bet. I have several images just burned into my brain. And that dang, "Uuuuhhhhhhhhh"...is enough to drive you crazy. And the eye! That dang eye just gives me the creeps. Take a look and check out the site...it's just as scary even more so after seeing the movie:



So, if you're into scary movies...it's a must. If not, run...stay away...cause those who encounter it will be consumed by its fury. Uuuuuhhhhhhhhhhhhh....

QQQ System Triggers

I received QQQ triggers from four of my trading systems to go long at Thursday's open. All four systems are based on the following technicals that occurred today:

Truerange greater than 1.5 times the average true range.

and

Volume larger than 1.5 times the average volume.

Then all three diverge in the hopes of finding a small edge in trading the QQQ.

All four are short-term daily systems. Backtested win percentages of 78%, 83%, 87%, and 94%. Should be an interesting next few days.

The Buffett System

Great interview of Moneyball author Michael Lewis. Moneyball continues to receive high praise. I guess, it's time I get my act together and read it. :)

Michael Lewis asserts being a contrarian isn't always about going against the grain. Being contrarian is about asking why something is done and finding out if there is a better way. Sometimes there is...and sometimes there isn't. He gives a great example on how Bill James discovered the error in errors and how conventional wisdom was right in ERA's. Read more...

The best part of the interview is where Michael Lewis shows his contrarian side in questioning the role Warren Buffett plays in the investing world and whether there is a way to profit from it. Here's the excerpt:

Michael Lewis: I hate to use this example because he is so successful, but Berkshire Hathaway's (NYSE: BRK.a, BRK.b) Warren Buffett. My God. Warren Buffett has been a wonderful investor. He has been a wonderful influence on American life. But I can't believe Warren Buffett is always right.

And that means that if you can find a position that you can take with some conviction and certainty and it is the opposite of something that Warren Buffett is doing or saying, there is probably a huge opportunity in it. You may have to weather a little storm along the way. But with the markets following whatever he says and does almost instantly in a way that may be unprecedented in financial history, there are definitely inefficiencies being created.

Since the Internet bubble burst, he was right about that in a way. His reputation was already huge, but since what was it, January 2000 or thereabouts, his influence in the market has been out of all proportion to any wisdom that a human being could have. What he says is taken as pure gospel so there is an opportunity in that for someone.

Great stuff!

Trading Personalities

The Innerworth newsletter focuses on the psychological aspects of trading. While I think too much emphasis is placed in this area...every so often these guys write something that hits home. Today is such a day.

Today's newsletter states there are 3 types of traders: data-oriented, intuitive, and impulsive.

The data-oriented trader focuses on concrete evidence and is extremely risk averse. He or she tries to seek out as much supporting data for a trading decision as possible.

The intuitive trader is the opposite of the data-oriented trader. He or she bases trading decisions on hunches and impressions rather than on clearly defined data.

The impulsive trader allows his or her decisions to adversely influence trading decisions. Rather than looking at information logically and analytically, information is discounted completely.

The article then breaks down each category. Read on...

While my trading instincts have improved over the years...I still consider myself a data-oriented trader. Don't know what I would do without the ability to backtest my ideas and strategies.

Robotics and Assisted Living

The buzz is getting louder for Robots. Cnet's article provides some background to my post last week that Robots are being hailed as the answer to our nation's rising senior population.

One of the key issues for robotic senior assisted living will be funding. President Andrew Silverthorne of PALS Robotics believes "Every month you delay an older American's entry into a nursing home, you save the system thousands of dollars." Thus, Silverthorne, believes Medicare will soon provide support to this burgeoning field.

You make the call. But, whatever your decision...the buzz for robotics is growing. Read on...

Check out RoboticTrends.com for further information on this exciting new field.

Boone Pickens Interview

Short but sweet interview with BP Capital's Boone Pickens. Mr. Pickens believes we've seen $40 oil for the last time. And makes a very interesting case for the Canada's Tar Sands. Read on...

State of the Oil Industry

Wonderful article on the state of the oil industry. Key points in the article:

• Mark Pease, senior vice-president of exploration and production for Anadarko Petroleum Corp., believes "There really is a lot of potential and reserves to be found in North America. There's going to be a lot of increase in activity."

• "I've been in the industry for 23 years now, and I certainly believe that the industry fundamentals are the strongest I've seen in my career." mentioned Mark Urness, Merrill Lynch director of oil services and drilling research.

• "Our forecast shows drilling activity reaching the highest level in 20 years. And we expect sustained growth in 2005-06 as long as [global] economic growth remains strong." again noted by Urness.

• In the Gulf of Mexico, said Danny McNease, chairman and CEO of Rowan Cos. Inc., drilling rigs are in short supply, and a spate of lease expirations looms.

Please read on...

Robots

Investors looking for the next big wave should pay attention to the growing utilization of robots. As this article states...falling component prices are increasing demand for automation. The use of robots is predicted to rise sevenfold over the next few years.

The leader in automation is Japan with approximately 400,000 industrial robots currently in use. Japan is leading this movement partly due to their aging population.

Many believe robots will become the caretakers of our aging seniors in the years to come.